Yankees vs. Mets prediction: Struggling Bombers still worth a bet against Max Scherzer

The stakes for this week’s two-game Subway Series are refreshingly high. Both the Yankees and Mets come into the week in first place in their division, but neither team will feel all that comfortable about where they stand as we barrel toward September.

Even though the Yankees have the more comfortable lead in their division compared to the Mets, the pressure in the Bronx is significantly more palpable than it is in Queens.

That’ll happen when a potentially historic season has seemingly come apart in the blink of an eye. After starting the season 61-23, the Bombers have gone 5-14 in August, 13-25 in their last 38 games, and have lost six series in a row. 

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Mets vs. Yankees odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: NYM -1.5 (+105) vs,. NYY +1.5 (-125)

Moneyline: NYM (-160) vs. NYY (+135)

Total: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)

Mets vs. Yankees prediction

For the Mets, the pressure is similar — they need wins to keep the Braves at arm’s length — but the context is different. While the Yankees have stumbled over the last six weeks, Buck Showalter’s Mets have played well and would be in the clear if not for Atlanta’s hot streak. 

As you’d expect, the betting market remains pretty sour on the Yankees despite a win over Toronto on Sunday, while the Mets are trending up. Add in the fact that the Mets have a distinct pitching advantage on Monday night with Max Scherzer set to take the mound opposite Domingo German, and it’s plain to see why the Mets are a -162 road favorite on Monday night.

After spending the entire first half of the season on the injured list, German made his season debut on July 21 and has made six starts since, posting a 4.45 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and a .274 batting average against in 28.1 innings of work. What’s even more concerning is that German’s 4.86 xERA and 4.69 xFIP suggest he’s earned every bit of his statline thus far. It’s not as if he’s been unlucky. 

German’s StatCast profile is more bad news as his .340 xWOBA, 44.4% hard hit rate and 18.5% strikeout percentage are all below his career average. Perhaps the long layoff has taken its toll on German, and he’ll improve as he gets in more work, but it’s not like the 30-year-old was setting the world on fire last season, either. 

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After allowing 10 runs over his previous 10 starts, Scherzer had his first pedestrian outing as a member of the Mets in his last appearance, allowing four runs on three hits and three walks in 6.1 innings. Mad Max still struck out eight of the 25 batters he faced, so it’s not like he wasn’t effective — he just wasn’t his usual dominant self against a terrific Braves offense.

The Yankees are indeed going through it offensively at the moment, but they remain a dangerous team, especially at home. The injuries to Matt Carpenter and Giancarlo Stanton are bad news, but the Bombers still can trot out a lineup built around Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Josh Donaldson, Jose Trevino, Andrew Benintendi, and Anthony Rizzo. Struggling or not, that remains a tricky proposition for any pitcher to solve.

Backing Domingo German against Max Scherzer isn’t anybody’s idea of a fun time, but in betting, everything comes down to price, and getting +138 on one of the best teams in baseball seems worth the risk. Sean Zerillo’s Action Network MLB Model is in agreement, too, as he makes the Bombers a +126 underdog on Monday night.

Yankees vs. Mets pick

The Bet: New York Yankees +135 (BetMGM)