Yankees vs. Guardians ALDS series odds and prediction: Bombers on upset alert?

After a 99-win campaign that saw them basically go wire-to-wire to win the AL East, the New York Yankees will take on the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS. The Yankees are -220 favorites to win the best-of-5 series, which starts on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium.

Gerrit Cole is expected to start Game 1 for the Yankees, who haven’t played since the regular season ended on Wednesday. The Guardians named Cal Quantrill for the series opener tonight.

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Guardians vs. Yankees Series odds (Via FanDuel)

• Guardians: +182
• Yankees: -220

Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction: Guardians +182 (FanDuel)

One of the narratives that we’re going to hear about through the entire Divisional Round is the rest vs. rust narrative. While the Yankees haven’t played since Oct. 6, the Guardians played a pair of high-stakes games on Friday and Saturday, meaning they’ll be coming into this series on two days’ rest.

It doesn’t seem like the betting market is too fussed about the Yankees being rusty. After opening as a -156 (60.9% implied win probability) favorite at FanDuel, New York has been bet up to -220 (68.7% implied win probability).

In terms of the matchup, the Yankees and Guardians is a classic battle between a powerful favorite and an underdog whose best asset may be its ability to hang around.

While the Guardians won’t blow you away with an offense that ranked 18th in wRC+, 16th in OPS, and 18th in wOBA, they also don’t typically get overpowered by opposing pitchers. Cleveland struck out just 18.3% of the time during the regular season, the lowest mark in the majors by more than a full percentage point.

Interestingly, the Guardians don’t walk all that much, either. Cleveland finished with the fifth-lowest walk rate during the regular season, so this is an offense that just makes contact and forces you to work to get outs.

The Yankees, on the other hand, go about business differently. While the Guardians grind out runs, the Bombers are a patient and powerful team. The Yankees led the MLB in home runs, walk rate and finished fourth in wRC+.

While the edge on offense clearly goes to the Yankees, the starting pitching staffs grade out much closer.

The Yankees should have a decent edge in Game 1, with Gerrit Cole set to take on one of Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, or Zach Plesac, but the Yankee ace did just post his highest ERA (3.50) since 2017. That said, Cole’s expected indicators, like his 2.78 xFIP, suggest he was pretty unlucky this season, and his ERA should be sub-3.00.

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Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino will get the ball in Games 2 and 3, respectively, most likely against Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie. Cortes, Bieber, and McKenzie all sport ERAs under 3.00, while Severino’s sits at 3.18. It’s tight.

The battle of the bullpen tips toward Cleveland, but as we see every year in October, that advantage can disappear in a heartbeat. Emmanuel Clase projects to be the most dominant reliever in this series, but he’s got plenty of support in James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan, Sam Hentges, Enyel De Los Santos, and Eli Morgan, none of whom boast an ERA above 3.50.

It really is anybody’s guess how the Yankees’ bullpen performs in the postseason. Clay Holmes was untouchable in the first half of the season, but he struggled down the stretch and is coming off an injury. Behind Holmes, the Yankees will look to Jonathan Loáisiga, Scott Effross, Wandy Peralta, and Lou Trivino to get big outs late in games.

Even with the bullpen concerns, the Yankees are deserving of their status as big favorites in this series. That said, the Over 4.5 games for this series is set at -190, which tells you that it could play out tighter than expected. That puts some betting value on the Guardians, who profile as a strong underdog with their ability to hang around in games and close them out when they’re ahead.