Will Turkey become a member of the E.U. now? Here’s what to know.

Turkey’s hostile relations with its neighbors Greece and Cyprus, both E.U. members, are another major problem. While both countries are NATO members, Turkish officials, including Mr. Erdogan himself, frequently question their common borders and say Turkey is entitled to more territory, to Greece’s outrage.

Turkey also maintains control and troops in the northern part of the island of Cyprus — which it invaded in 1974, claiming it was intervening to protect a Turkish-speaking minority. The international community does not recognize its administration there, and Turkey does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus, an E.U. and United Nations member that governs the southern two-thirds of the island.

Efforts to resolve the Cyprus question, one of the world’s most intractable frozen conflicts, have stalled after several attempts. To be let into the E.U., or even to make genuine progress in that direction, Turkey would likely have to recognize the Republic of Cyprus.

But what is also evident is that the E.U. no longer has any appetite to expand eastward. Letting Turkey join would mean integrating a large Muslim country into the bloc and moving its external borders to Syria, Iran and Iraq.

What could happen next?

Experts say that the current framework of the E.U.-Turkey relationship, which is still centered on Turkey’s candidacy, creates false expectations and lets both sides down, arguing that it would be better to create a new type of special relationship between the bloc and its neighbor.

But the E.U. and Turkey have their reasons for sticking to the existing framework. E.U. diplomats who see Turkey as key to managing migration and other major policy challenges believe that even if the process never leads to full accession, it can be a useful path, tethering Ankara to Brussels and providing a structure for talks.

If only they’d talk!

What is expected to happen next is a re-engagement, especially in terms of public communication, between the bloc and Turkey. The E.U. will produce a report about the future of the relationship, the senior E.U. official said.