Why the Mets’ prime pitching prospects may leave the club scrambling to assemble a staff next season

For the Mets’ pitching prospects, it’s all about 2024 as a potential breakthrough year.

Before we get too much into that, let’s review what has occurred the last few seasons: David Peterson and Tylor Megill arrived from the minor league system in 2020 and ’21, respectively, and helped boost the Mets rotation.

It’s in part because of those two arms, who transitioned into solid reserves behind a rebuilt starting five, the Mets didn’t have to scramble this season to fill starts when injuries struck. Together, Peterson and Megill combined for 28 starts this season. The only starting pitcher to make his major league debut this year with the team was Jose Butto. Another spot start came from Thomas Szapucki, who ultimately was traded to the Giants as part of the deal to acquire Darin Ruf. (Converted to a reliever, the left-hander Szapucki pitched to a 1.98 ERA in 10 appearances for the Giants.)

Heading into spring training this year, it appeared other arms might be on the way soon in Matt Allan and Adam Oller, considered the Mets’ two top pitching prospects. But Oller was traded to Oakland in the deal that netted Chris Bassitt and Allan didn’t throw a pitch this season as he recovered from ulnar nerve transposition surgery in his elbow.

Only 21, Allan arrived in the same 2019 draft class as Brett Baty. The pandemic prevented the right-hander from pitching the following year before he underwent Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2021. Though the ulnar nerve surgery sideline him for a second season, it’s believed this year’s rehab will give him a chance to move fast within the organization.

The next wave of highly regarded arms in the organization pitched below the Double-A level. It’s a list that includes Blade Tidwell, Calvin Ziegler, Mike Vasil, Dominic Hamel, Joel Diaz and Junior Santos, and officials in the organization are looking toward 2024 as a season in which they can potentially expect contributions from some in that group in the major leagues.

Hamel, a third-round pick in the 2021 draft, was named the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year after splitting the season between Low-A St. Lucie and High-A Brooklyn. Overall, the right-hander went 10-3 with a 3.25 ERA with 145 strikeouts in 119 innings.

“The biggest thing that I will say that stands out about him is he’s a winner,” Mets director of player development Kevin Howard said. “He is ultra-competitive. I think some players, when the light shines bright, they can get better or worse, and he’s one where it’s the better he gets.

“He’s not shy in the spotlight and that is what you want from guys for a big market like New York, guys that want that attention. They want the crowd to watch. They want the games to mean something, and I think he’s that guy.”

In the meantime, the Mets have to figure out what their rotation looks like beyond Max Scherzer and likely Carlos Carrasco (whose club option worth $14 million can be picked up). Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Bassitt, though, all can head to free agency, leaving uncertainty. And while Peterson and Megill have shown they can pitch at the major league level, are the Mets ready to bank on them as full-time rotation options? This much is clear: Pieces to the equation, at least for next season, likely aren’t within the minor league system. But the next year could be a different story altogether.

Award-worthy

The Mets don’t have any serious candidates for Rookie of the Year, MVP or Cy Young (although we would expect Edwin Diaz to receive several votes for the latter two awards). But it’s easy to make a case for Buck Showalter as National League Manager of the Year.

The fact the Mets didn’t crumble with deGrom and Scherzer on the injured list and still won 101 games is quite an accomplishment. Furthermore, Showalter got the most from a bullpen that lacked depth behind Diaz, Adam Ottavino and Seth Lugo and had the respect of his players.

You could make a case for Atlanta’s Brian Snitker, given the Braves’ incredible four-month stretch to conclude the season. You could also argue for the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts, based on 111 victories in the regular season. But Showalter is, and should be, right there in the discussion for an award he’s won three times before with the Yankees, Rangers and Orioles, which is a testament to his ability resurrecting franchises. The next step is postseason success.

Who isn’t a free agent in Queens?

Keith Hernandez’s SNY contract is expiring, but he has indicated a desire to continue in the booth into his 70s. The former Mets first baseman, who turns 69 next Friday, missed the final week of the regular season following an accident stumbling on a curb that resulted in shoulder surgery.

Schwarber decision still hurts

Watching Kyle Schwarber perform for the Phillies in the postseason has offered a reminder the Mets had a chance last winter to sign the lefty slugger — who led the NL with 46 homers. But the Mets passed, in part because of the options they had in Robinson Cano, Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis. Cano and Davis, of course, are no longer with the organization and Smith might be non-tendered this offseason if he isn’t traded. Davis was solid for the Giants over the final two months, posting an .857 OPS with eight homers in 49 games.

Having Schwarber and Pete Alonso in the same lineup would have been a sight to behold and certainly could have helped rectify the power outages that plagued the Mets at times.

Dance with who brung ya

Now that the offseason is here, the Mets will have to decide whether to keep their coaching staff intact. It would be surprising if there is an overhaul, especially given the amount of authority Showalter has within the organization and the fact he helped shape so much of this year’s staff. Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner was the lone holdover from the previous regime and he was widely praised by Showalter this season for the manner in which he handled the staff.