Why Aaron Judge has MVP edge over one-of-a-kind Shohei Ohtani

There is a 20-season period, beginning with the 1997-98 campaign, in which an annual case could be made for Gregg Popovich as NBA Coach of the Year. He won the award three times.

For most of this century the same case could be made in the NFL for Bill Belichick. Yet, the Associated Press bestowed him the award just three times.

This is how Shohei Ohtani’s MVP candidacy is going to be as long as he is a high-level pitcher and hitter — he can be given the award every year. It is just going to be a matter of how many times he is going to receive it. Popovich and Belichick did not become lesser coaches in any of those seasons. It was just a matter of if you thought someone else coached better, or — probably more often — if you liked the narrative of another coach (usually due to surprising team success) or voters independently reached the human-nature inspired group decision of wanting to elect different winners.

Because just in theory how do you get more valuable than having an All-Star hitter and starting pitcher housed in one person? And that is who Ohtani has been this year, just like last year. To date in 2022, he has basically been Pete Alonso at the plate and Nestor Cortes on the mound — how nice that all are in their age-27 seasons.

Through Sunday as hitters:

• Ohtani: .265/.358/.516, 28 homers, 77 RBI, 145 OPS-plus

• Alonso: .273/.350/.516, 31 homers, 105 RBI, 144 OPS-plus

Through Sunday as a pitcher:

• Ohtani: 128 innings, 2.67 ERA, 518 batters faced, .214/.264/.349

• Cortes: 131 innings, 2.68 ERA, 514 batters faced, .200/.249/.340

Ohtani does not play the field as Alonso does, but Alonso’s NL MVP viability hardly has anything to do with his defense. Meanwhile, Ohtani has 11 steals (though he’s been caught stealing eight times) and six triples — his 14 triples between 2021-22 leads the majors. The same human is sixth over the last two seasons combined in both extra-base hits (133, tied with Nolan Arenado) and strikeout percentage at 31.6 percent (minimum 250 innings pitched).

Of course, the MVP is just about the one season being played, and in that one Ohtani had both a 2.67 ERA and an .874 OPS going into the Angels’ series opener against the Yankees, who have the perceived AL MVP frontrunner in Aaron Judge. If the season ended today, I believe Judge should win the AL MVP.

In 2021, Ohtani won the AL MVP over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero’s Blue Jays team did not make the playoffs as Judge’s Yankees are all but certain to do in 2022 (though Guerrero’s team was not eliminated until the last day of the season). Also, Judge is having a better offensive season this year than Guerrero did last season, plus will benefit from being a superior baserunner and defender, competently taking on center field to provide Aaron Boone more lineup maneuverability and being a leader — if not the leader — of the Yankees.

Of course, if Judge — who already had one more homer this season (49) than Guerrero Jr. had in 2021 — breaks the Yankees/AL/non-dubious single-season homer record by reaching at least 62, that also will add distinction and heft to his MVP case. With more than a month to go, Judge already has a higher Wins Above Replacement this year than Guerrero had last season — he also has more just as a position player than Ohtani has a hitter and pitcher, which doesn’t feel right.

But the case against Ohtani is hardly just WAR related. As it was last season, he’s doing what we have never seen before, but for a non-contending team. It is not his fault that the Angels start with the advantage of a Cy Young pitching candidate and MVP hitter in one person and still can’t even figure out how to sniff .500. But he is performing without the stress or significance that would come from meaningful games. Fittingly, he is teammates with Mike Trout, who for most of his career has been a brilliant player whose MVP candidacy has been hindered by playing for an addicted non-contender. Trout still has three AL MVPs — his first in 2014, the last time the Angels made the playoffs.

Like Trout, Ohtani (health permitting) looks as if he is going to force voters to weigh annually just how valuable what he does is. It is going to be quite a challenge each year because — just in theory — what can be more valuable than all he embodies?

Still, don’t feel bad for voters. That is not a more difficult job than what is coming this offseason when his team, his representatives and perhaps an arbitration panel will have to determine what to pay a singular player who hits and pitches at the top of his field.

Will those entities be determining the pay of a one- or two-time AL MVP?