Weather warning: we could be in for ‘one of the wettest Januarys on record’

It comes as tropical cyclone Tiffany steams towards the Queensland coast, Maryborough’s CBD flooded and areas near Gympie recorded more than half a metre of rainfall in a single 24-hour period.

And yet, it’s not these regions that could see record breaking rain, but parts of south eastern Australia. Another storm outbreak will see rain gauges fill again this week.

“We’re looking at one of the wettest Januarys on record for parts of New South Wales,” said Sky News Weather senior meteorologist Tom Saunders on Monday.

Meanwhile, in South Australia and Western Australia heat is the story of the week with multiple days above 35C.

Cyclone Tiffany set to hit land – twice

The wildest weather for the coming days is likely to be in Far North Queensland and the Top End as cyclone Tiffany makes landfall.

The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast the category 2 cyclone, with gusts of up to 130 km/h, should hit land on Monday afternoon near Cape Melville which is around 185 kilometres north of Cook Town on the Cape York Peninsula.

That could deliver up to 100mm – potentially much more – in the proximity of Tiffany over Monday and Tuesday with thunderstorms possible.

Cairns, some way south of Tiffany’s landfall, can still expect storms and up to 50mm of rain on Tuesday and a further 8-25mm on Wednesday.

Tiffany is expected to charge across Cape York at cyclone strength and then enter the Gulf of Carpentaria where it will power up again, potentially as high as category 3 later in the week.

“Once it hits the Gulf, we’ve got very warm sea surface temperatures up around 30C,” said Mr Saunders.

“It’s likely to intensify further with a second landfall more than likely later this week somewhere around the Gulf of Carpentaria coastline but it’s too early to make a prediction on exactly where that second landfall would be.”

Mr Saunders said “hundreds of millimetres” of rain could be expected through a large swath of northern Australia and perhaps as high as 400mms which is almost certain lead to flooding.

For the start of the week in Darwin expect afternoon storms and some spots of rain with highs of 34C. But as Tiffany edges nearer those rain totals could increase. Wednesday could see up to 20mm and then 50mm on Saturday. But the impact on Darwin will very much depend on where Tiffany decides to head.

An exclusion zone remains in place around the CBD of Maryborough as a result of the severe flooding in to the town. The Mary River peaked at 10 metres, but the water levels are now expected to head back down.

‘One of the wettest January’s on record’ possible

As you head further south, Tiffany’s impact will be weakened. A pleasant week for Brisbane with highs around 30C and overnight lows of 20-22C. Really not much rain at all with a shower possible on Tuesday.

“The storm outbreak for the south east returns this week. It’s not as extreme as last week but on Tuesday there is a high chance of storms through much of inland NSW at the same locations that had the storms last week,” said Mr Saunders.

“The outbreak will ease on Wednesday but then it will increase again from Thursday onwards.

“We’re looking at one of the wettest Januarys on record now for parts of NSW and perhaps northern and eastern Victoria due to all this rain.”

Much of that is down to the La Nina climate driver pushing warmer water towards the east coast.

In Wagga Wagga, for instance, the average January rainfall is 31.4mm. The Riverina city got more than that in a single day last Friday when 36.4mm fell. This month Wagga has recorded 73.6mm, more than double a usual January.

Temora, also in the Riverina, has seen 145mm so far in 2022 which is its soggiest January in 27 years.

While there is the possibility of a showers throughout the week, Sydney itself is not looking overly soggy with under 5mm each day.

Just as it’s been for the last few weeks, highs will remain around 30C falling to 20C overnight in the Harbour City.

Wagga Wagga could see 15mm on Tuesday and then again on Friday. Northern parts of the state should be drier but the end of the week could see showers.

A wet day in Canberra on Tuesday with up to 10mm of rain and heavier falls to end the week. Maximums in the capital of 27C with dawn lows of 15C.

A warm week in Melbourne peaking at 30C on Thursday and not dropping out of the high twenties. At night, minimums in the late teens are possible. Storms are possible most days with heavier showers on Friday.

Along the Murray it’s hot and unsettled with Swan Hill looking at 39C on Monday and 37C on Wednesday with possible severe storms.

Hobart will bounce around the 20C mark this week with lows of 13C. Mostly dry but some showers on Thursday.

Blistering heat in SA and WA

A hot week in Adelaide with 35C on Monday and Tuesday and temperatures not dipping into the twenties until Friday. Overnight it should drop to 23C. No rain in Adelaide to speak off.

Perth will be even more blistering with 37C on Tuesday and 36C on Wednesday before falling to 29C from Thursday. A low of 23C is expected on Wednesday.

Heatwave conditions are forecast across much of northern and central WA this week as well as into central Australia.

Broome will see peaks of 34-35C for the next seven days.

Originally published as Warning we could be in for ‘one of the wettest Januarys on record’ in parts of Australia