Warwick Farm tips: Montserrat ready to land a first-up win

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WARWICK FARM

BEST BET

Race 6, No.5: MONTSERRAT

Won his only start at Warwick Farm; has won from 1100m up to 1800m, usually takes a run to get him going but has trialled like he is ready to deliver fresh.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.1: CHENIN

Sister to Mark Newnham’s dual Group 1 Shadow Hero on debut here a 1400m which is not too short, not too far. Trials like a good horse.

VALUE BET

Race 7, No.3: SILENT AGENDA

Could find these too sharp but getting big odds to gamble on that he could pull out the proverbial ‘big run fresh’ here at home.

BEST EXOTIC

Exacta Race 2, No.1 to beat No.2

QUADDIE

Race 4: 2,3,7

Race 5: 2,9

Race 6: 2,5

Race 7: 1,2,3,5

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Jason Collett has enough horse power underneath him to win the TAB Jockeys Challenge.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR WARWICK FARM

RACE 1

Russian Ruble opened the campaign on Melbourne Cup Day at Randwick and ran an eye-catching fifth behind this weekend’s Magic Millions Guineas fancy, I Am Lethal. Skip ahead to the gelding’s most recent run at Newcastle where he beat all far a $1.1 million Deep Impact yearling known now as Elzamee who might be above average himself. Lo Lo Lonhro was a big drifter first -up at Newcastle and ended up beating one home. He did very much look like a horse who wanted 1400m right away. Indifference is a half-brother to Complacent and will eat up the 1400m and more later on.

Bet: Russian Ruble to win, Lo Lo Lonhro to place

RACE 2

All eyes on Chenin here if only for the fact that she is a sister to a dual Group 1 winner namely Shadow Hero. It would seem to be that Chenin will herself get out past a mile and up to 2000m and maybe an Oaks trip but for now, 1400m at Warwick Farm is the perfect trip/track. Scat’s Surfer Girl was unplaced in her two runs at the first preparation but they were in very, very strong races each time. She ran really well behind Profondo before the spell and has trialled well. Stablemate Pretes looked to have plenty in the locker in those two trials last month.

Bet: Chenin to win, box trifecta 1,2,4,7

RACE 3

De Grawin blew like a hurricane in the betting first-up – $6 out to $13 – which was staggering given how she was set up to run. Take nothing away from the winner that day, Dragonstone, but De Grawin put up a fight to make sure it was hard earned. Drawn well and at home for this. Sixgun is at his most dangerous when they fly up and front and he ambushes them late. Provided all the speed horses show up on race day, this race could fall into his lap. Duchess has drawn well, had the 3kg off and has been sharp in her trials.

Bet: De Grawin to win, exacta 1 to beat 2

RACE 4

Jungle Book has some good numbers for this. The Warwick Farm trained gelding has raced here four times, winning twice. Better still, his record at the track and distance is two wins from three starts. The son of Animal Kingdom was very good when a close-up fourth here on December 22. This looks a mighty attractive target for Travest. Take note that all three of the horse’s wins are at Warwick Farm and he is ‘one for one’ at the track/distance. Absolutely has the credentials. Prince Of Arragon won his one and only start at the course.

Bet: Jungle Book to win

RACE 5

Atlantic Seas was $7 into $5 when he was having his first run for the new stable – Chris Waller – in an 1100m race here on December 22. He drew 11 of 11 that day which wasn’t so bad in itself but he got way further back than some of us would have expected. It was impossible to win from there but he was impossible to miss late. Hindsight is a beautiful thing but Nikau’s fifth to Miracle Day and O’Mudgee in December 10 in town surely made her ‘unbeatable’ back at the provincials on Boxing Day. On her way now. O’Tartan Lass has been primed for this with a couple of top shelf trials. Mystic Rebel is a huge improver.

Bet: Atlantic Seas to win

RACE 6

Montserrat has been trialling like he would just about win anywhere trainer Mark Newnham took him. That said, his form reads as a horse who invariably takes a run to really get him going and he is better upwards of a mile. Could be wrong but I am suggesting he is flying and it’s not like 6/4. Pardon me for saying, but I had three ‘X’s’ on Zell here at $41 and if you believe that he ran 14th of 15 then you didn’t see the race. Sorry, but he should have been in the top five, maybe even on the podium. Nishikori is a lightly-raced gelding with a good record off some equally good trials.

Bet: Montserrat and Zell each-way, exacta 5 to beat 2, quinella 2,5

RACE 7

Silent Agenda has a pretty underwhelming first-up record and hasn’t won a race at a distance under a mile. Against all that, we are getting big odds about a Warwick Farm trained horse who is at least resuming in his own ‘class’ and his trial here 13-days was one of a horse that would surely run well first-up. Ditto all that for Off Shaw who unlike Silent Agenda actually has a very compelling first-up record. Rhythmic Pulse is a last start winner with the key booking – Mitchell Bell.

Bet: Silent Agenda each-way

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm