Warriors vs. Kings prediction: NBA playoffs Game 2 odds, picks Monday

After entering Saturday’s series opener as slight home favorites but sizable underdogs in the series, the Kings delivered a statement win over the Warriors in Game 1 to take an early 1-0 lead.

Still, oddsmakers are pricing Golden State as the clear favorite to win the series, and the team is dealing as a 1.5-point favorite to even the series in Game 2.

Will we see a bounce-back performance from the defending champions, or will Sacramento hold serve on its own home court?

Here’s how we’re betting Monday’s contest, which tips off at 10 p.m. ET on TNT.

Kings vs. Warriors odds

(via BetMGM)

• Warriors -1.5 (-115), moneyline -130
• Kings +1.5 (-105), moneyline +110
• O/U 239.5 (-110)

Kings vs. Warriors prediction and analysis

(10 p.m. ET. TNT)

The sexy pick here is to lay the small price on the Warriors, who entered this series as gargantuan favorites and hasn’t fallen behind 2-0 in a playoff series since 2007.

At a certain point, though, it’s about time the market starts to show some respect for the Kings, who proved on Saturday that they’re more than just a regular-season fluke.

After setting an NBA record for the highest offensive rating (118.6) in a single season, Sacramento dropped 126 points in its long-awaited playoff return – the third-most by any team this weekend and tied for the eighth-most allowed by the Warriors in the Steve Kerr era.

Golden State lost each of the previous nine times that it allowed more than 125 points in a postseason game.

It was seemingly powerless to the Kings’ offensive surge in the second half of Saturday’s game, spurred by a raucous crowd that helped Sacramento erase a double-digit deficit and score 71 points in the second half alone.

It also spelled another road collapse for the Warriors, whose 10-31 record in away games this year was the fourth-worst by any team in the entire league.

Sure enough, Golden State let a late lead slip through its fingers in a hostile environment, further complicating the team’s status as an outright road favorite ahead of Game 2.

If the Warriors are to win on Monday, they’ll need a better answer for De’Aaron Fox, whose 38 points in Game 1 were tied for the second-most in a playoff debut in NBA history.

A whopping 29 of those came in the second half, and the All-Star guard carved up Golden State’s defense from inside the arc (18 points), beyond the arc (12) and at the free-throw line (eight).

The most likely counter for the Warriors is more run from Gary Payton, who played just three minutes in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s loss.

But that would have an adverse effect on the offensive spacing for a team that launched 50 threes in Game 1 – the second-most in a playoff game in the Kerr era.

It would also likely mean fewer minutes for Kevon Looney, who helped limit Domantas Sabonis (12 points) to his ninth-lowest scoring output all year.

Betting on the NBA?

It’s a true pick-your-poison decision for the Dubs, as one of Fox or Sabonis seem destined to enjoy a favorable defensive matchup for most (if not all) of Game 2.

Conversely, the Warriors were hellbent on attacking Sacramento from deep and seemed reluctant to shift from that philosophy in their postgame comments, even as they sliced up Sacramento inside.

You may still feel like the Warriors are the better team.

You may be right.

But they shouldn’t be priced as the outright favorites in this game – not after what we’ve seen from them on the road all year, and especially not after what we saw on Saturday.

Kings vs. Warriors pick

Kings +1.5 (-105 BetMGM)