Ukrainian military’s mounting losses on daily basis could be tipping point in war

Ukrainian casualties are reportedly somewhere between 6oo and 1,000 a day. One presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, told The Guardian this week it was 150 killed and 800 wounded daily Another, Mykhaylo Podolyak, told the BBC that 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops a day were getting killed. There is complete lack of parity between the Russian and Ukrainian armies and this was underestimated by the West.

Recently Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy put the daily death toll at up to 100, but Podolyak said it had grown. Ukrainian officials have themselves pointed at the mounting losses. The Ukrainian Army is running out of ammunition near the frontline regions of the south, said Mykolaiv governor Vitaliy Kim, urging for immediate international military assistance. “Russia’s army is more powerful, they have a lot of artillery and ammo. For now, this is a war of artillery… and we are out of ammo,” Kim said, as quoted by Voice of America.

“The sheer number – more than 20,000 casualties a month – raises questions about what state Ukraine’s army will be in if the war drags on into the autumn,” according to an article in The Guardian published on June 10.

“…Ukraine’s forces are already being pushed back in a Donbas artillery bombardment so intense it is likely to have a shell-shock impact on many of those who survive it,” according to The Guardian article.

“Western officials prefer not to discuss the impact of the war on the defenders, instead highlighting the problems for the Russians in their briefings. This week, one of those officials said their estimate was that the invaders had lost “15,000 to 20,000 dead”, out of an invasion force that was 150,000 or more. Yet despite this, Moscow’s army has still not lost its offensive capability. But they chose not to provide similar estimates for Ukraine, which can create a lopsided impression that the Russians are faring worse. In fact, with an artillery overmatch of 10 or 15 to one, according to the Ukrainians, it may well be that the invaders’ casualty rate is far lower at the moment, because they are able to deal death from a greater distance to defenders who cannot see them,” according to The Guardian

“Ammunition is certainly running short on the Ukrainian side, again by their own admission. Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, has said Ukraine is using 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day, and has “almost used up” its stockpile of Soviet 152mm standard shells. It is now relying on Nato-standard 155mm howitzers; it is unclear how many of these it has.”

Commanders have told the Guardian that Ukraine struggles for some basic equipment such as encrypted radios (where mobile phones work, it is not uncommon to rely on the secure Signal app instead) or advanced sights and optics of the types commonly used by western militaries.

According to a column in the New York Times US officials do not have full picture of the capabilities of Ukrainian forces. U.S. intelligence agencies have less information than they would like about Ukraine’s operations, according to New York Times (NYT) article titled “U.S. Lacks a Clear Picture of Ukraine’s War Strategy, Officials Say”

“…there are cracks in Ukraine’s defenses, and questions about the state of Ukraine’s military forces and strategy in the Donbas have created an incomplete picture for the United States,” according to the NYT piece.