Live at Hill Country Barbeque Market in New York City, I am here to preview UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden with some high-profile MMA minds. We welcome the trio who host “The Ringer MMA Show” and had a sold-out live show ahead of the Saturday’s UFC event. Ariel Helwani, Chuck Mindenhall, and Petesy Carroll are some of the brightest and most well connected minds in the sport.
As I sat down with the trio prior to the show, one of the more special moments occurred, when they got word the event was officially sold out.
As they got that news, Helwani simply pumped his fists with his co-hosts Mindenhall and Carroll as they joked, “Here come the scalpers! They’ll be here any minute infiltrating to score a profit.” Helwani said, “There is more to come for live shows. It’s by far the best way to engage with our tight-knit audience.”
As for the show, itself, it featured three guests — UFC commentator Laura Sanko, bantamweight phenom Merab Dvalishvili, and light heavyweight contender Anthony “Lionheart” Smith.
Between the three of them, they provided me with a ton of behind the scenes information as well as helping set the stage for UFC 281. Obviously, a huge shoutout goes to them for their insights, especially Mindenhall, who visited Alex Pereira’s fight camp in Danbury, Connecticut while they were preparing him for his title fight. That level of insight is invaluable.
Without further adieu, let’s preview UFC 281.
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UFC 281 preview, picks, and predictions
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira preview
“I do appreciate Adesanya saying that this fight is personal. Has it ever happened that the challenger has beaten the champion twice in another sport and is now fighting him for the title?” Helwani tee’d up tonight’s main event.
It hasn’t happened, for those wondering.
My first thought for the main event was that Adesanya was avoiding eye contact with his opponent during media and seemed a bit timid. Too much of nothing? Perhaps. But that was real for the Conor McGregor vs. Jose Aldo fight, so it’s worth asking.
Mindenhall noticed it was a bit odd too, “I always look at fighters’ demeanor heading into a fight, especially a fight like this.” But Helwani, who had Adesanya in his studio this past week, said he looked very confident, so caution to anyone who thinks the champ is fearful of Pereira.
Lastly, we get into the strategy, which implies some method-of-victory UFC betting opportunities. All things considered, Adesanya will want to work in the clinch and hang on his opponent if he wants to tire him out. Pereira has never been in a five round MMA fight, so there is a lot of unknown here.
During Mindenhall’s visit with Pereira’s camp, he got a glimpse into what they were working on to prepare.
“There was a lot of leaning, clinching, and cage pushing when I was there,” he said.
Pereira was clearly working on clinch defense. Avoiding clinch exchanges, especially against the cage, appears to be — and should be — a massive point of emphasis for him.
Essentially, they are worried about Adesanya’s movement in the cage that could force Pereira to back up against the cage. From there, his cardio gets tested and he gets pulled into deep water.
Carroll mentioned the odd matchmaking here.
“Eugene Bareman [Adesanya’s coach] has been saying since he [Pereira] was signed and immediately was being pushed up the ladder towards a title shot,” he said.
Helwani piggiybacked off this by saying: “The UFC signed this guy, gave him three winnable fights and now he’s in a title fight. Good job by them.”
My initial read was — and it still is — Adesanya. The fact is he is far more experienced and we are being given a gift that his odds are better here than they were against Robert Whittaker just eight months ago.
The pick: Adesanya ML -225 (BetMGM) | Adesanya wins by KO/TKO in rounds 2, 3, 4 (+700, FanDuel)
Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili
Something we discussed during our UFC 281 preview was the list of defending champs who were big underdogs in a title defense. Here’s the list…
Matt Serra (+445) vs. George St. Pierre
Aljamain Sterling (+320) vs. Petr Yan
Carla Esparza (+270) vs. Zhang Weili
Frankie Edgar (+250) vs. BJ Penn.
Jan Blachowicz (+220) vs. Israel Adesanya
The champs are winners in three out of four of those fights (+6.9 units) according to Caesars Sportsbook. An intriguing trend, the confidence that comes with being a champion is very real. Still, there’s no way to sugar coat it for Esparza. She is in an incredibly tough spot.
Carroll and Mindenhall were keen to remind me that this was Ariel’s favorite fight on the card. But it’s not just not the best fight to bet. This is a dog or pass situation (bet the underdog or don’t bet it at all).
“Esparza doesn’t like me, because I am brutally honest,” Light heavyweight contender Anthony “Lionheart” Smith said during his appearance on the show. “I think Zhang is better than her everywhere and she’s in for a long night.”
Helwani added, “This fight will either by Zhang by knockout or Esparza by decision.”
The odds are long here and an Esparza bet is tempting. But the matchup is tough and Smith talked me off the ledge. Pass here, even in a variance-filled women’s MMA match where we get the champ at huge dog odds.
Betting on Sports?
Michael Chandler vs. Dustin Poirier
“It’s not about wins and losses anymore. It’s about how I make you [the fan] feel.” Michael Chander said during an appearance on Helwani’s show, “The MMA Hour.”
A very telling statement. Do we want to bet on a fighter who is looking to entertain, presumably more so than win? A difficult fight to pick already just got tougher if you look at that kind of mindset.
Ideally, a bet on Chandler would be a bet on his wrestling as a change of pace to keep Poirier off balance.
“But does he have it in his brain to actually wrestle?” Helwani asked during our chat.
Chandler’s wrestling skills have been clearly under-utilized since coming to the UFC; perhaps because of that mindset we mentioned.
Striking wise, I think Poirier owns the volume advantage, and probably the power advantage. Frankly, I think this fight goes deep, much more than sportsbooks are projecting. All things considered, fight goes to decision at +230 is a pretty tough line to bet against. Could Poirier win by KO/TKO? Of course.
But Poirier has only been knocked out once, and isn’t exactly a KO artist himself. Over 1.5 rounds comes in at -134 on FanDuel which is one of the best bets on the card. My official read on the fight is Poirier wins by decision (+390) but Chandler’s defense has always been suspect, making a Poirier KO/TKO more than possible. It is important to note that this is a three-round fight.
The picks: Over 1.5 rounds (-134) | Fight goes the distance (+290) | Poirier wins by decision (+390) — FanDuel Sportsbook
Renato Moicano vs. Brad Riddell
“I think Moicano gets Riddell to the ground, He knows after that last fight, he can’t take that kind of damage again,” Carroll said of the prelim fight. “Get it to the mat and he wins.”
Moicano is coming off of a demolition at the hands of Rafael Dos Anjos, who just didn’t want to hurt Moicano anymore. That durability actually hurt him last time out, absorbing 179 total strikes with plenty of cuts to boot.
Now he faces the only City Kickboxing team member that is an underdog. The key to the fight? Getting Riddell to the mat. If he can do it that, he likely wins. If he can’t he probably loses.
For me, I am betting this one as a fight that goes the distance, which comes in at +118 on FanDuel. It feels like the Moicano submission is the only real way this fight gets finished. Riddell was insta-tapped last time out against Jalin Turner but I don’t think that’s a true representation of his skills. Turner is a future title contender, which is not how I view Moicano at this time.
Other fights to watch
Dominick Reyes (-210) vs. Ryan Spann
“I really want to see how Reyes looks on Saturday because I still think he beat Jon Jones in their title fight at UFC 247,” Helwani said.
From my perspective, this is good matchmaking for Reyes. This more or less a get right spot against Spann who also missed weight. Look for Reyes to win this one violently. He is +128 to win by KO/TKO on Barstool Sportsbook which looks to be the best odds on the betting market.
Dan Hooker vs. Claudio Puelles
“Does Dan Hooker have anything left in the tank? He should win this fight, I think he gets it done, but it’s been a while since we have seen Hooker look his best. The move down to 145 pounds made no sense,” Helwani said.
Hooker was once a -170 favorite to beat Michael Chandler. Remember that? It’s been downhill ever since with losses to contenders Islam Makhachev and Arnold Allen. Hooker should win this one by decision (+250) if we are being practical here. He’s the much better striker.
But there should be some caution here, fighters that lose in brutal one-sided fashion several times in a row could begin to fade in terms of confidence. We all know Hooker has taken massive amounts of damage in his career.
Frankie Edgar (+210) vs. Chris Gutierrez
With tears in our eyes, New Jersey’s own, Frankie Edgar walks to the octagon one last time. Does he have anything left? Probably not.
MMA rarely ends with a swan song. We all love Edgar, but Gutierrez is being given a showcase spot on a major PPV. To win by KO/TKO comes in at +225 on BetRivers, and is the only bet to make for this fight.
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