Turkey election results put Erdogan ahead, but runoff likely as his lead isn’t big enough

The outcome of Turkey’s national election, which could determine whether the nation straddling the geographic divide between Europe and Asia returns to a more democratic path after what many see as two decades of eroding democracy, was on a knife’s edge Monday morning. A second “runoff” vote looked likely after voters failed Sunday to give either current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, more than 50% of the vote, as required for an outright victory.

With almost all the ballots counted, Erdogan was just shy of the 50% threshold. But that didn’t stop his supporters taking to the streets in their thousands to wave flags and cheer a triumphant-sounding incumbent.

“We have already surpassed our closest competitor by 2.6 million votes in the elections,” he declared, while vowing to let the counting finish and to respect the results, even if they do mean another round of voting in a couple weeks.

Twin earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people in February, inflation running near a two-decade high and a national currency that’s crashed against the dollar have all shaken support for Erdogan after years of him looking almost politically invincible.

More people in Turkey appear ready for change now than at any other point since Erdogan first came to power as prime minister in 2003.

As the votes were counted, opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu reminded his supporters that “data is still coming in,” and he chided Erdogan for taking such a victorious tone as he addressed his own backers, warning that “elections are not won on the balcony!”

Critics, including Kilicdaroglu, say Erdogan has amassed too much power as president and diluted Turkey’s democracy. Supporters laud him for bringing Islam back, but opponents accuse him of derailing the secularism on which modern Turkey was founded.

Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu have both agreed to participate in a runoff vote if needed, which would be held in two weeks. 

For Washington and much of western Europe, it’s an open secret that the end of Erdogan’s two-decades in power would be their Turkish delight.