Tropical storm could form off Florida coast on 1st day of 2023 hurricane season, forecasters say

A tropical storm could form off the coast of Florida on Thursday, the first official day of the Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA forecasters said. If winds reach 39 miles per hour in the tropical depression, it would be the first named storm of the season. 

The system, initially dubbed Invest 91L and since upgraded to Tropical Depression Two, started as just a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico late Wednesday night, with only a 20% chance of becoming a cyclone within 48 hours. But by early Thursday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said it could become a tropical storm, with a 70% chance of development. 

“Recent satellite wind data, along with buoy and ship observations indicate the area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has a broad but well-defined circulation with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph,” the agency said Thursday afternoon.

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The National Hurricane Center issued an alert just after 4:30 p.m. ET that the storm has strengthened to a tropical depression.

The system has shown thunderstorm activity, the agency said, and conditions are showing to be “favorable” for the system to continue to develop. 

However, the depression, which could still strengthen to a tropical storm if wind speeds pick up, is expected to be “short-lived,” the center said, adding that it’s likely to “meander” over the Gulf through the night but may turn south on Friday. It’s not expected to strengthen through the weekend and will “likely” remain offshore and headed toward Cuba. 

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft was expected to investigate the system further Thursday afternoon. If it grows to become classified as a tropical storm, it will be the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season: Arlene.

Forecasters predict 2023 will see a “near normal” season, with at least 12 named storms.