Is your team in the market for a quarterback in the NFL draft?
How could you go wrong with any of these four choices?
1) A Heisman Trophy winner praised for quick processing and anticipatory throws.
2) A big-game performer with smooth mechanics.
3) A highly motivated cannon-armed prototype.
4) A dual-threat athlete who is built like a linebacker.
Or is the better question to ask, why risk failure with any of these four choices?
1) A historical outlier with durability concerns at 190 pounds.
2) A reported low-scorer on the S2 Cognition Test with questionable leadership.
3) A turnover machine who transferred after losing a battle to start.
4) A career 13-game starter with accuracy issues.
Time is almost up for the Panthers, Texans, Colts, Seahawks, Raiders, Titans, Commanders, Vikings and maybe a few others to finalize whether there is more promise or more concern in each of the four quarterbacks who will determine the way the first round of the draft begins to play out at 8 p.m. Thursday.
Where will Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson (No. 1-4, respectively, above) land?
“I used to, for a minute, think it was going to go 1, 2, 3, or 1, 2, 3, 4. I don’t feel as confident about that right now as I did,” said former NFL general manager Mark Dominik, a SiriusXM NFL analyst who counts Hendon Hooker as a fifth first-round quarterback. “I think there’s so much risk-reward in some of these guys that I don’t think they’re going to go off the board 1, 2, 3, 4. I think four will go in the top-20 picks. Probably all five.”
The expectation around the league is that the Panthers — who traded a first-round pick, two seconds and Pro Bowl receiver D.J. Moore to swap with the Bears from No. 9 to No. 1 — will select Young.
“If it was like a blind taste test — if you just read the notes on Bryce Young and didn’t look at how big he was — and you read your notes on Joe Burrow, they would read almost identical,” said former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, an NFL Network analyst. “I think he is that type of a player.”
With that decision nearly settled, welcome to smokescreen season.
If the Texans only have eyes for Young, will they trade out of No. 2? Or, as is the buzz, pick their top-ranked pass-rusher among Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson and Jalen Carter?
“I’ll believe it when it happens,” one NFL coach said when asked about the Texans bypassing Stroud. “If that’s the case, why were they not more aggressive addressing quarterback through free agency or a trade? How many years is that front office going to get to replace Deshaun Watson?”
The ideal situation for the Cardinals, who Jeremiah said “have the worst roster in the league right now,” would be a bidding war for No. 3 as teams like the Seahawks (No. 5) and Raiders (No. 7) consider jumping the Colts at No. 4.
That trade market should intensify if Stroud is available.
The Colts most commonly are linked to Levis, though sources told The Post that pick could be Richardson in a curveball.
“If you’re thinking about making a move,” Dominik said, “you really should know what your limit is the night before because the adrenaline pumps when you’re in the draft room.”
Four quarterbacks have never represented the top four or five picks of a class in the common draft era (since 1967).
Only once (2018) have four quarterbacks gone in the top 10.
That group — Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen — proved not to be an all-time great class. Is this?
“It came together [last season] for Stroud, Richardson had one great game [against Utah], Young had always been way up there,” ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said. “Talent of those guys is always going to win out. All four should have a chance to be great, if things fall right.”
If quarterbacks start to slide, don’t expect it to last long.
Six (Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Rosen, Justin Fields and Mac Jones) have been taken between picks No. 10 and No. 15 in the last six drafts.
“Now you bring in a whole new wave of teams that could be in the quarterback market and can trade up,” Jeremiah said. “There seems to be kind of that new sweet spot of quarterbacks. I think a lot of times we assume these quarterbacks are all going to go off the board in the top five, but there’s a lot of history over the last handful of years.”
Let the guessing game begin.
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