‘Too close:’ Expert’s chilling virus claim

University of Sydney’s Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety chair, Professor Michael Ward, said the recent detection of viral fragments in a pork product on sale in Melbourne was a “big cause for concern”.

Australia’s livestock industry is on high alert after an FMD outbreak has put Indonesian farmers in a chokehold. As of July 27, almost 429,000 cases have been detected in the country. Although the virus isn’t harmful to humans, it causes highly infectious and devastating blisters on cloven-hoofed animals like cattle, sheep, goats, deer and pigs.

While routine inspections found by the Department of Agriculture did not indicate the presence of a live virus in the Melbourne pork samples, Prof Ward said this was an example of the virus getting “too close for comfort”. Fragments of African swine fever were also found in the products which had been imported from China.

At the time, Agriculture Minister Murray Watt said that while the detection was “very disturbing,” it was proof that Australian “borders are strong and our systems are working”.

“We have always said that animal product imports are actually the biggest risk of foot and mouth disease entering the country,” he said in a press conference.

“There is a risk of it coming in from a traveller’s shoes, but the biggest risk is the importation of animal products.”

However, Prof Ward said that while the particles didn’t contain traces of the live virus, it’s difficult to prove that “there weren’t actual infectious virus in the material at some time”.

“It likely wouldn’t have been infectious but you don’t really know and once you’ve got particles there, it might be an indicator the pathway is existing and it is coming in,” he told news.com.au.

“You’re just getting very close to the end of that chain of events.”

While the virus particles weren’t at risk of transmitting FMD, Prof Ward said an outbreak could occur if the contaminated meat was fed to pigs due to their omnivorous diet.

“That’s sort of the missing link at the moment, but we’re almost getting to the last chain of the link,” he said.

“You’ve got material there. If it’s live and infected, all that’s needed is someone to transport that to a rural setting, or even a backyard on the fringe of a major city.”

A $13 billion epidemic and six million animals put down

Comparing, the UK’s 2001 epidemic, to how a foot and mouth disease outbreak might occur here, Prof Ward said it’s likely Australia would have a similar response.

On February 19, 2001, a routine inspection of a abattoir in Essex, southeast England, revealed 27 pigs infected with foot and mouth disease.

At that time, it was estimated that the virus had been seeded to 57 farms across Britain.

The epidemic wasn’t cleared from the UK until January 14, 2002, with the UK suffering a staggering $13 billion hit to the economy, with more than six million animals slaughtered.

While a foot and mouth disease outbreak could be managed by vaccinating livestock, Australia’s status as a “major exporting country” would mean slaughtering all infected and potentially infected livestock the “default policy”.

“Whether we like it or not, all of our farms are really dependent on exports,” Prof Ward said.

“Seventy per cent of our stuff gets exported, which means we’d need to get rid of foot and mouth disease as fast as possible.”

Although he admitted it was a “very harsh response,” it would be necessary as a way to get “back into the export market really quickly”.

“The best way to do that is to going in boots and all and slaughter all infected herds and flocks and anything that possibly has come into contact with those herds and flocks,” he said.

Prof Ward also said that detecting the virus early is also instrumental, due to the disease’s infectiousness.

“If you don’t get in the first week, you’re really behind the eight ball,” he said.

“That’s why so much of it’s been about [things] like surveillance, reporting from farmers and vets knowing what to do. That’s so that we would get that quick detection if we did get it.”

‘Whole market chain thrown into chaos’

Although Prof Ward believes that Australia is “probably doing enough,” when it comes to preventing the introduction of FMD, while he believes foot baths are a more “cosmetic” solution, he said the two key pathways that must be managed are the “increased inspection of parcels and baggage coming in”.

“Again, it’s those meat products,” he said.

However, should the virus hit Australia, he said the impact would have a “major impact on the supply chain”. While he said that beef, lamb and pork prices may get an initial drop in prices – due to the overnight pause on Australia’s export trade – there would eventually be product shortages.

“It will probably take months to settle down,” Prof Ward said.

“There’s all these winners and losers, and it’s really difficult to sort of know what would happen but all the farmers who depend on exports will be hit, whichever way it goes.”

Another trajectory could be that the price of chicken and poultry could increase, as it did during the UK’s mad cow outbreak in the 1980s and 1990s.

Previously speaking to news.com.au, Catherine Marriott, CEO of independent farming systems group Riverine Plains, said a potential outbreak would likely greatly affect how Australians would shop and eat.

“You won’t be able to get milk, butter, cheese, yoghurt – all of that goes,” she told news.com.au.

“You wouldn’t be able to buy it and prices would go through the roof. If people think meat and dairy is expensive now … brace yourself.”

While it’s been predicted that foot and mouth disease could have up to an $80 billion impact on Australia’s economy, Ms Marriott also stressed the devastating affect it would have on farmers and rural families.

“It is so distressing to have to go around and put livestock down, to shoot the herds and see piles of burning livestock because the virus is just so virulent,” she said.

“That’s what’s stressing me and it’s going to send families and rural communities to the wall.”

Originally published as Foot and mouth disease Australia: Sign $80 billion virus is too close for comfort