Tiger Woods British Open odds, liability: ‘Tiger money’ flows again

Tiger Woods playing in Major Championships has become a familiar dance for sportsbooks at this point.

Bookmakers know that it is very unlikely that Woods wins the upcoming 2022 Open Championship (aka the British Open), but they weren’t born yesterday so they’re also aware that even if they tax Woods’ odds, they’ll get enough ‘Tiger Money’ that another fairytale victory would absolutely crush them. It’s all about finding that sweet spot for both sides of the window.

Oddsmakers want to put out a number that will attract as many bettors as possible, while also not putting out a number that could put themselves in a very bad spot should the unthinkable happens.

Woods was +5000 to win the Masters and +6600 to win the PGA Championship, which both look long enough to casual punters and Tiger fans to be enticing, while also not even coming close to representing his true odds, which are likely somewhere in the triple-digits.

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Long-term success in sports betting will always come down to discipline and making +EV (positive expected value) decisions more often than not, but there are always exceptions to every rule. People — even sharp folks — want to bet Tiger, even at bad numbers. Who knows how many more opportunities we’ll get to throw some beer money on Woods to win a Major?

At the time of writing, Woods is +6600 on BetMGM to win the Open Championship at St. Andrews and once again it seems like bookmakers have found that sweet spot. According to John Ewing of BetMGM, 5.7% of the tickets they’ve written and 6.7% of the money that’s been bet at their shop is on The Big Cat. Woods is their biggest liability.

And it’s the type of liability that bookmakers will be fine with.

“Tiger Woods is already a significant liability for [us],” Jason Scott, the VP of trading at BetMGM, said to Ewing. “Judging from his last few tournaments, playing four days in a row seems to put incredible stress on Tiger’s body so we’re comfortable with the huge liability.”

Golf fans and Tiger backers may point to what happened at the 2019 Masters as a reason to chuck a few bucks on Woods — and hell, betting should be fun so if you love Tiger and want to have some skin in the game should the unthinkable happen, by all means — but it is worth noting the differences between what was going on in the spring of 2019 and what Tiger is dealing with today.

Woods, who went off at +1400 for that storybook win at Augusta, was playing here and there before the Masters that year. He wasn’t playing much, sure, but he was only six months removed from a win at the TOUR Championship the previous fall.

Betting on golf?

Tiger has played two tournaments — the Masters and PGA Championships — since getting into a car accident last February. And in one of those events, the PGA Championship, Woods pulled out after the third round. Through seven rounds of golf in 2022, The Big Cat is +25. You put any other golfer — even players like Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas or Rory McIlroy — in this situation and they would not be given a chance to contend this weekend. But Woods, as always, has earned the respect of nobody counting him out.

Woods is the greatest golfer and one of the greatest athletes to ever walk the earth, so yes there’s a tiny chance he can overcome the odds to lift his fourth Claret Jug and first since 2006.

But if it doesn’t happen, sportsbooks will find themselves in a terrific position.

Again.