These factors make Celtics the pick against Nets in NBA playoffs

Raheem Palmer, Action Network’s NBA analyst, makes his selections for two of the first-round series that begin Sunday.

Nets vs. Celtics

Celtics win series (-130, DraftKings)

It’s never easy betting against Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in a seven game series, but based on the numbers, I have to do it.

My initial reaction to seeing the opening line of Celtics -110/Nets -120 was to reenact Johnnie Cochran’s Chewbacca defense in “South Park”: To put it bluntly, it does not make sense.

My power ratings have the Celtics as the league’s best team (even better than the Suns) primarily based on their defense, which ranks first in the NBA, allowing just 106.9 points per 100 possessions in their non-garbage time minutes. The Celtics are the more complete team and if they’re capable of decreasing the efficiency of Durant and Irving just slightly, they should win this series.

The Celtics offense can be inconsistent at times but they’re still 10th in offensive rating in their non-garbage time minutes and the Nets are unlikely to slow this team down as they’re just 21st in defensive rating, they’re 22nd in turnover rate and dead last in defensive rebounding rate showing an inability to end possessions even when they do get a stop.

If you’re betting on the Nets, you’re essentially betting that Durant’s and Irving’s shotmaking can overcome all of their other issues, which could happen, but they’ll need to sustain extremely high workloads. In the play-in game against the Cavaliers, the Nets barely survived non-Durant minutes.

That said, I think Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart are ready to take the leap into being the cream of the crop of the Eastern Conference. Tatum’s 54-point game against the Nets in March showed that he can be the best player in this series.

Boston is a team that has made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in three out of four seasons before a down year with a first-round exit at the hands of the Nets in 2021.

To quote James Brown … for the Celtics this is “The Big Payback.”

Bucks vs. Bulls

Bucks Series Spread -2.5 Games
(-175); Bucks Win in 4 Games (+250, PointsBet)

Do you remember the last time the Bulls defeated the Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo in the lineup? It was Dec. 26, 2017. The Bucks have defeated the Bulls in 16 out of their last 17 meetings, with the only win coming on May 16, the last day of the regular season last year in a game in which the Bucks benched their starters.

Mike Budenholzer also owns the Central Division as a whole during his tenure with the Bucks, coaching his team to a 50-8 record. While the Bulls are a different team this season, it does speak to the dominance the Bucks have exhibited in this matchup. In four games against the Bulls the season, the Bucks won all them by an average margin of 14.7 points.

At best, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine can get hot and steal a game, but I’m struggling to see the Bulls winning one given their lack of answers for this Bucks offense. I’ll back the Bucks -2.5 games and also to sweep.