The biggest threat to Daniel Ricciardo and a Formula 1 return are his own Red Bull teammates.
Speculation continue to spread that AlphaTauri will ditch Nyck De Vries, with talk at the Austrian Grand Prix that the Dutch driver could be ditched after the summer break.
Ricciardo is set to be assessed by Red Bull to gauge where he sits relative to incumbents Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez.
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If not the Australian, then New Zealand’s Liam Lawson is the next in line with Japan’s Ayumu Iwasa and Frenchman Isack Hadjar second or third in the queue – all Red Bull-backed juniors.
Ricciardo and Lawson both have reserve driver status, each travelling to select grands prix as back-up options for Red Bull and AlphaTauri.
The chance of a full-time return seems slim for Ricciardo, especially considering Red Bull’s preference to promote its junior drivers up the ladder.
If Ricciardo got the nod over Lawson or Iwasa, it would defeat the purpose of that academy.
However, in the instance of De Vries, he was brought into the team this year as Red Bull felt none of its junior drivers were ready to make the step up to F1.
The same could be true in this case, with Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko suggesting that Ricciardo may only be drafted in if they feel Lawson, Iwasa, or Hadjar aren’t ready.
“The philosophy is quite clear, the performance decides,” he said, when asked about Ricciardo’s prospects.
“Of course, the team philosophy is to educate young drivers. But if young drivers are not currently there – there are coming some good young drivers, Iwasa is doing a good job, (Isack) Hadjar is doing a good job – but it’s simply a little bit too early for them.
“I see them (sooner) or later in our team. But if the particular time is too early, then maybe we have to find another solution. But this has not been discussed so far. So far everything is like (as usual) with our team.”
Those comments seem to rule Iwasa and Hadjar out in the short term, but it stands to reason that Lawson is ready or close to it.
Although the ultimate success of a title in Formula 2 or Formula 3 hasn’t been forthcoming, his success to date in Super Formula has been promising.
The 21-year-old has twice won races this year and sits second in the standings in what Marko rates as one of the toughest single-seater series.
Red Bull put Pierre Gasly in Super Formula for a season before he graduated to F1. That year, Gasly finished second in the title race.
Lawson already has F1 testing miles with Red Bull and AlphaTauri, which arguably puts him ahead of Iwasa and Hadjar too.
“Liam has done a good job when he was driving for us last year in Abu Dhabi,” said Marko.
“And he is currently also doing a good job in Japan because it’s quite a tough championship over there. And as I said before, it’s a performance question.
“We have to find out, we have to see which driver is first of all available and matured enough and educated enough and ready to go for an F1 car.
“This we will see. Currently nothing has been decided.”
All of this may count for nothing if De Vries does indeed up his game and Red Bull decide to keep him at AlphaTauri.
Although, there is a feeling that he will be gone by the end of 2023 in any case.
Marko said De Vries will decide his own future based on how he performs in races to come. Marko has given the 28-year-old four races to improve, or be dumped after the break according to Sky Sports F1.
De Vries sits equal last in the standings with Logan Sargeant, both without any points to their name. He has a season-best finish of 12th in the first race of the season in Bahrain.
AlphaTauri also sits last in the teams’ championship after eight races.
The F1 season continues with the Austrian Grand Prix on Sunday.
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