This article was originally published on Stuff and is reproduced with permission
ANALYSIS: In the normal course of events you would expect Ian Foster to roll out a tried and trusted All Blacks squad to begin preparations for the World Cup via the truncated Rugby Championship campaign.
All Blacks coaches don’t tend to experiment greatly in World Cup years. If at all. They’ve spent the previous three seasons doing that, and have usually arrived at a pretty settled group when the global event rolls around. Bolters are often thin on the ground.
But these are not normal circumstances. Not by a long stretch. So maybe tried and trusted formulas go out the window, even with a head coach as conservative and seemingly short-sighted as Foster. Maybe the boss, in the final campaign of an inglorious era, is backed into a corner where he has to take a risk or two.
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And maybe that might not be a bad thing.
For starters, the All Blacks are coming off a poor year in 2022 in which they lost four Tests, drew another and failed to string together back-to-back standout performances the entire season. There were moments of positivity, such as the unlikely victory at Ellis Park, the second hit-out against Argentina and Bledisloe II in Auckland, but there were many, many more when Foster’s men struggled mightily.
To simply roll out the same group would be folly. There surely needs to be an injection of freshness, of form, of enthusiasm. Even if it’s just among the wider squad.
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Then there is the injury situation. It’s significant. The Crusaders alone had eight All Blacks unavailable for their semi-final, and the Blues’ Patrick Tuipulotu is also out with a fractured arm. It’s impossible to know the timetable for returns, but Foster must surely run out his fit and available types and squeeze the returnees in as and when they become available.
Which brings us to the composition of this 36-man squad for the championship to be named on Sunday night in Te Awamatu. Any room for new caps? For form types?
Three I reckon, with a fourth or fifth perhaps marked unlucky.
If Foster is bold and courageous he picks Crusaders prop Tamaiti Williams, Hurricanes halfback Cam Roigard and Chiefs fullback Shaun Stevenson. All three have had wonderful Super Rugby Pacific campaigns, look rising young performers worthy of a spot and are, most importantly, in compelling form.
They might not be ready for starting spots just yet, but, jeepers, they do not look far off it.
Given Joe Moody, Fletcher Newell and George Bower are all injured, and how well Williams has stepped up on both sides in their absence at the Crusaders, it would be fitting reward if Foster included the 144kg man mountain in his props contingent alongside a quintet who pick themselves.
What has he got to lose? Williams is on such an improving form arc, who knows, maybe by the World Cup he’s all the way ready to feature in a big-time Test match. It would be intriguing to see.
Roigard has perhaps a harder road among a crowded field of halfback contenders. But such has his form been for the Canes in ’23, and such a different set of skills does he bring to the table, that it is not difficult to see him there in the mix come Sunday.
Veteran Aaron Smith is the certainty, and Fin Christie and Brad Weber are the other incumbents. Folau Fakatava has his supporters, too. But I have Christie nudging his mate from the Chiefs in a tight call on pure consistency, and Roigard bringing his youth, explosiveness and running game as the third option.
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Stevenson, alongside the Blues’ Mark Telea the standout player of Super Rugby Pacific, assuredly deserves a spot in this group among the back three. He’s a brilliant fullback, and would do the job at wing nearly as well.
There are a lot of fullback options around, with Will Jordan back in form and stringing matches together, and Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie both also well capable of playing there. But if Foster is smart he looks at the No.15 jersey as a home for a specialist in 2023, with Jordan and Stevenson, in that order, the standout contenders.
Two other rising young Chiefs may not be quite so lucky. Emoni Narawa is playing well enough, but I have him squeezed out for the power game of Leicester Fainga’anuku (who also covers centre), while loose forward Samipeni Finau may have to wait till the next cycle for his chance.
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The tough calls in my 36 came with third hooker, where Asafo Aumua’s shaky throwing likely opened the door for one last campaign for Dane Coles, at fifth lock if they run that deep, with Josh Lord maybe sneaking in while Tuipulotu is out, and in midfield where injuries leave things decidedly wide open.
Foster’s group mostly picks itself. Let’s see if he’s bold enough to bring in a dash of youth, form and freshness.
Possible All Blacks squad: Hookers: Dane Coles, Samisoni Taukei’aho, Codie Taylor. Props: Ethan de Groot, Tyrel Lomax, Nepo Laulala, Aidan Ross, Ofa Tuungafasi, Tamaiti Williams. Locks: Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Tupou Vaa’i, Sam Whitelock. Loose forwards: Sam Cane (c), Shannon Frizell, Luke Jacobson, Dalton Papalii, Ardie Savea, Hoskins Sotutu. Halfbacks: Fin Christie, Cam Roigard, Aaron Smith. No.10s: Beauden Barrett, Damian McKenzie, Richie Mo’unga. Midfield: Jordie Barrett, Braydon Ennor, Rieko Ioane. Anton Lienert-Brown, Jack Goodhue. Back three: Caleb Clarke, Leicester Fainga’anuku, Will Jordan, Mark Telea, Shaun Stevenson.
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