If Tesla needs to hold more inventory in coming quarters to smooth deliveries and avoid the end-of-quarter rush that has been its norm, that would add to the $1.2-billion in undelivered cars it held at the end of the second quarter.
Analysts believe Tesla still has more demand than it can supply, the bedrock assumption behind its aggressive expansion plan over the next year as it ramps up production at factories in Shanghai, Berlin and Austin, Texas.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said he believed Tesla did not face an immediate demand problem, but added a caution on pricing and Tesla’s ability to buck the economic cycle.
“It would be unreasonable to assume that there is: (a) a limit to how much Tesla can continue to increase prices without demand suffering and (b) that the company was not exposed to decelerating macroeconomic growth,” he said in a research note.
Tesla’s average vehicle transaction price jumped 31 percent to $69,831 in August, compared with $53,132 at the start of 2021, according to Kelly Blue Book. That outpaced industry-wide price hikes on new cars of 18 percent to $48,301 during the same period.
The waiting time Tesla customers face between order and delivery has also been dropping in both the U.S. and China, Tesla’s largest markets. In China, that lag, one indicator of the supply-demand balance, has been cut four times since August to a minimum of a week for delivery.
And Tesla, which has resisted marketing and incentives, offered Chinese buyers a rebate of 8,000 yuan ($1,100) if they took delivery before the end of September.
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