Three Australian teams – the ACT Brumbies, NSW Waratahs and Queensland Reds – have qualified for the Super Rugby Pacific quarter-finals, which kick off in Auckland on Friday.
But how many are likely to progress to the semi-finals and really give the dominant New Zealand clubs a scare?
Former Wallaby Morgan Turinui got out the crystal ball this week on Stan Sport’s Between Two Posts.
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BLUES (3) vs WARATAHS (6) in Auckland, Friday 5.35pm kickoff AEST
NSW staggered into the finals with a disappointing loss to Moana Pasifika in Michael Hooper’s last home game.
“The Blues will probably have too much firepower there,” Turinui said.
“Tahs now have to bounce back from a really poor performance.
“Not just a team that has finished sixth, is in good form, has had a run of wins and goes over there to try and knock off the third placed Blues. It’s a team that has to bounce back and find something extra, an unsettled team.
“No Jake Gordon, no Harry Johnson-Holmes, a jumbled backline.”
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CHIEFS (1) vs REDS (8) in Hamilton, Saturday 2.35pm kickoff AEST
The minor premier Chiefs have lost just one game this season – a 25-22 upset against the Reds in New Plymouth in May.
“That gives even more energy I think to the way the Chiefs will approach this game, they’ll be filthy about that loss,” Turinui said.
“They’ll be proud of their performance in Perth (beating the Force last weekend) and they’ll know that they’re the best team in the competition off the back of wonderful defence and Damian McKenzie in career best form, I think they’ll be too strong.
“Yes, the Reds also will go there with no fear saying ‘we’ve done this before, we can do it again.’ There’s something in that, but I don’t think they can get high enough up.
“This is crunch time, championship minutes for Harry Wilson’s Wallaby aspirations.
“Mano a mano against a guy like that (Luke Jacobson), if he wants to impress anyone, if he goes hard for 80 and shows up someone as good as Jacobson. The back end of the season, he’s player of the season.”
NEW PODCAST! Sean Maloney and Morgan Turinui discuss NSW’s flop in Michael Hooper’s last home stand and preview the Super Rugby Pacific quarter-finals
CRUSADERS (2) vs DRUA (7) in Christchurch, Saturday 5.05pm kickoff AEST
Despite being severe underdogs, the Drua will also carry some confidence into their quarter-final after stunning the defending champion Crusaders 25-24 in Lautoka in March.
But can they transfer their hot home form into the mother of boilovers in chilly Christchurch?
“Well, if anyone can, they’re the ones that can, they’re the ones that can score 25 points in 20 minutes,” Turinui said.
“Can they do it in Christchurch against the Crusaders? I’ll tell you what I’m interested in is the skins count, how many of them wearing the skins, long skins.
“How many of the 23 do you think will be wearing them? I think that would be a fair few.
“Isn’t it funny that of the one v eight and two v seven (quarter-finals), the seven and the eight have both beaten those teams this year?
BRUMBIES (4) vs HURRICANES (5) in Canberra, Saturday 7.35pm kickoff AEST
The Brumbies are flying the flag as the only Australian team to host a home quarter-final this year.
The Brumbies also beat the Hurricanes in Canberra in last year’s quarters but the Wellington-based club are in form after toppling the Crusaders last weekend.
“I expect a similar match (to last year’s quarterfinal, won 35-25 by the Brumbies,” Turinui said.
“I expect the Brumbies just to be smart, pragmatic, dominate territory, be very good defensively… a team that deserve your support.
“And I think that should be enough against a Hurricanes team that you fear because (Ardie) Savea of course, but everyone across the board there, there’s some outstanding individual players that can tear you apart. (Cam) Roigard has had an excellent season.”
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