Stanley Cup Final odds: Two hockey long shots to wager on

Oddsmakers are having a devil of a time separating the Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers.

At the time of writing, the Knights are -130 favorites over the Panthers, which would be the tightest gap in the odds of a Stanley Cup Final since the Pittsburgh Penguins were just about the same price when they defeated the San Jose Sharks in 2016. 

If you’re just looking at the big picture, it may seem wonky that the odds in this matchup are so tight.

The Golden Knights had the best record in the Western Conference and have gone 12-5 in the postseason against Winnipeg, Edmonton and Dallas, so you’d think they’d have garnered a bit more respect from the market against an eight seed that clawed into the playoffs at the very end of the regular season.

First Bet Offer: Get up to $1,000 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if You Don’t Win! with code NPBONUS

21+. New customers only. NY, AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. T&C apply

BetMGM Poker: Up to $1,000 First Deposit Match + Up to $75 Tournament Play

21+. New customers only. NJ, MI, PA Only. Terms and Conditions apply.

But the Panthers have proven that they’re no ordinary eight seed.

The Cats have lost just four times this postseason and three of those defeats came in Round 1 against the record-setting Boston Bruins. 

Another reason the market may be skeptical of the Golden Knights is the goaltending matchup.

Adin Hill has been stellar since replacing the injured Laurent Brossoit at the end of Round 2, but Hill’s career numbers grade out much closer to average than the elite stats he’s registered during this playoff run.

Hill owns a .937 save percentage and a +6.4 Goals Saved Above Expected in the 11 games he has played for Vegas this spring. 

Florida has questions to answer, too.

Sergei Bobrovsky is on an all-time heater in goal for the Cats, but betting on him to maintain that level seems a bit risky.

If Bobrovsky comes down to earth, will Florida’s defense be able to pick up the pieces?

Another wrinkle in this matchup is how the two-week layoff is going to impact Florida.

The Cats were riding a wave through the first three rounds, so it’s fair to question if getting a 14-day breather is helpful or hurtful. 

It’s a boring answer, but it does seem like as if the bookmakers have priced this series about right.

There are too many questions for both teams that are too hard to answer to get involved with a series bet when it is so tightly priced.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t some punts with value ahead of Game 1:

Ivan Barbashev to win the Conn Smythe (66/1, BetMGM)

Nobody will argue against Bobrovsky or Matthew Tkachuk winning the Conn Smythe Trophy (given to the MVP of the Stanley Cup Playoffs) if Florida wins this best-of-seven.

But things get interesting if Vegas lifts the Cup. 

Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson are all sitting between +400 and +650 and Mark Stone is a jump further at 15/1, but Barbashev’s stat line is almost on par with all of them (he’s three points back of Eichel for the team lead in the playoffs) and is sitting at 15 times the price.

Barbashev would need to be the star in the series to win this thing, but he’s in great form and plays on the No. 1 line, so it’s not out of the question. 

Betting on the NHL?

Nick Cousins to lead Stanley Cup finals in goals (200/1, DraftKings)

This is a “definition of insanity” bet, as I’ve made it the past two rounds, but I can’t look away from this price considering where Cousins plays in Florida’s lineup.

The veteran winger has a prime spot on Florida’s best line with Tkachuk and Sam Bennett, so he has a much better chance of pulling this off than your normal 200/1 long shot.