PGA odds, projections: How to model Charles Schwab Challenge

Following some late drama, Justin Thomas claimed the 2022 PGA Championship in a playoff over Will Zalatoris.

Now, we turn our attention to the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. This week features another loaded field with three OWGR top-five players and five players from the OWGR top-10.

Thomas (+1100) arrives as the pre-tournament favorite while Masters champion Scottie Scheffler (+1200) closely follows. Rounding out the top-five on the odds board are Jordan Spieth (+1400), Collin Morikawa (+1800) and Viktor Hovland (+2000).

Before we share our best bets, though, we’ll begin as always with a statistical modeling approach for Colonial. In addition to the five key stats greater than 10 percent emphasis) I’m prioritizing this week, I’ve included some subsets (less than 10 percent emphasis) to help refine the model. Additionally, I’ve added one qualifier — courses less than 7200 yards — to further specify the results.

Claim a Risk-Free First Bet up to $1,000

New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. Full T&C apply.

Get up to $1100 in first bet insurance

New users only, 21 or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&Cs apply.

Bet $50 Get $200 in Free Bets

21+. New customers only. NY, AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. T&C apply

Get two Risk-Free Bets up to $2,000

New players only, 21 or older. Available in CO, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, NY, PA, VA, WV only. Full T&C apply.

100% First Deposit Match up to $250 with promo code NYPBONUS

New players only, 21+. NY, NJ, MI, AZ, VA only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full T&C apply.

Claim a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet

21+. New customers only. NY, AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. T&C apply

Risk Free Bet Up to $1000 + One Free Month of Fubo TV

New users only, 21 or older. Available in IA, AZ only. Full T&C apply.

Bet $1 Get $200 in Bet Credits

21+. New customers only. NJ only. Full T&C apply.

Bet $20, Get $100 in Free Bets

21+ & New Customers only. NJ & PA only. Full T&Cs apply.

Get a $250 First Deposit Match

21+, New Customers Only. NJ and CT only. Full T&Cs apply.

Stat #1 – Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green (15 percent emphasis)

Subset: Fairways Gained (5 percent emphasis)

The fairways are not very wide at Colonial Country Club — only 27 yards wide, almost seven yards shorter than the tour average — so players will need a strong driving game.

Additionally, in the last 12 rounds played at Colonial Country Club, hitting the fairway was classified as “difficult” and only qualified as “easy” in two of the 12 total rounds. The tee-to-green stat also has a strong correlation with finishing position as three straight winners have ranked out fourth or better for the week in that stat with two of the last three and three of the last four ranking second or better for the week.

Gaining fairways is also somewhat indicative as two of the last four winners ranked seventh or better in that stat for the week.

Here are the SG: T2G leaders over the last 36 rounds with betting odds for the week:

1. Daniel Berger (+3300)
2. Justin Thomas (+1100)
3. Sungjae Im (+3300)
4. Webb Simpson (+4000)
5. Collin Morikawa (+1800)

Stat #2 – Strokes-Gained: Approach (17 percent emphasis)

Subset: Proximity – 150 to 175 yards (5 percent emphasis)

Just like every other week on tour, approach play is going to be hyper-important at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

The greens are quite small at Colonial — only about 5,000 square feet on average as compared to 6,600 square feet as the tour average. Plus, there’s a strong correlation between SG: approach and overall finishing position. Per datagolf.com, there’s a 64 percent correlation between finishing position and players’ ranking in this statistical category.

Further, three of the last four winners at this event have ranked fifth or better in SG: approach for the week. As for the subset, that refinement is based on the fact a plurality of approaches (21 percent to be exact) come from that distance.

Here are the SG: Approach leaders over the last 36 rounds with their betting odds for the week:

1. Justin Thomas (+1100)
2. Daniel Berger (+3300)
3. Collin Morikawa (+1800)
4. Russell Knox (+10000)
5. Harold Varner III (+5000)

Stat #3 – Strokes-Gained: Par 4’s (16 percent emphasis)

Subset: Par-4 Scoring: 400-450 yards (6 percent emphasis)

Just like last week at Southern Hills, par-4 scoring is going to be crucial at Colonial. The Par-70 features 12 such holes and really only one gettable Par 5.

As expected, Charles Schwab winners have proven very efficient on those 12 holes as four straight have finished fourth or better in Par 4 efficiency for the tournament.

In terms of the subset, seven of those 12 aforementioned Par 4’s fall in between that range on the scorecard with three of seven having played under par for the week in 2021. In fact, only one had an average score of higher than 4.1, so there should be some scoring opportunities for players on these holes.

Here are the SG: Par 4 leaders over the last 36 rounds with their betting odds for the week:

1. Daniel Berger (+3300)
2. Justin Thomas (+1100)
3. Sungjae Im (+3300)
4. Bryson DeChambeau (+8000)
5. Cameron Davis (+10000)

Check out the best sports betting sites and apps

Stat #4 – Birdies or Better Gained (15 percent emphasis)

This tournament usually doesn’t see a lot of winners reach -20 or lower, but it does tend to see a low-scoring winner.

Four straight winners have reached -13 or lower at Colonial while every winner since 2015 has reached at least -10. Additionally, the last four winners at Colonial — Jason Kokrak, Daniel Berger, Kevin Na and Justin Rose — all ranked out second or better in birdies or better gained for the week.

It’s also worth noting here that seven of Colonial’s 18 holes play under par on average while all but five have a birdie percentage of 15 percent or higher.

Here are the birdie or better gained leaders over the last 36 rounds with their betting odds for the week:

1. Bryson DeChambeau (+8000)
2. Cameron Davis (+10000)
3. Justin Thomas (+1100)
4. Kevin Na (+5000)
5. Erik Van Rooyen (+10000)

Stat #5 – Greens in Regulation Gained (11 percent emphasis)

Subsets: Putting – 5 to 10 feet (5 percent emphasis), Putting – 10 to 15 feet (5 percent emphasis)

Considering the aforementioned small greens at Colonial, an ability to have an accurate approach that successfully avoids one of 84 course bunkers will prove huge.

Plus, even from a top-five finish to winning, there’s a massive jump in greens in regulation gained. A top-five finished will average about 1.14 greens in regulation gained on average while a winner will average 1.6 greens in regulation gained on average.

From there, I want to factor in putters who have previously demonstrated success from the posted distances. At Colonial, a combined 43.7 of birdie or better putts are made from between five and 15 feet. Further, two of the last three tournaments saw the greens qualify as “fast” on the stimpmeter, so a solid putting touch is crucial this week.

Here are the GIRs gained leaders over the last 36 rounds with their betting odds for the week:

1. Russell Knox (+10000)
2. Collin Morikawa (+1800)
3. Adam Svensson (+30000)
4. Bryson DeChambeau (+8000)
5. Harold Varner III (+5000)