Marlon Vera (19-7-1) and Dominick Cruz (24-3) headline UFC Fight Night at Pechanga Arena in San Diego, California this weekend.
The pre-fight narrative: The legendary Cruz makes his fourth start following a lengthy hiatus from MMA while Vera hopes to shoot up the bantamweight rankings with a signature win.
Check out our best Vera vs. Cruz picks for August 13.
UFC Fight Night Vera vs. Cruz picks
Best bet: Vera to win via decision (+150)
Saturday’s headline fight features two fighters on completely different career trajectories.
Cruz reached the bantamweight mountaintop in 2010 before suffering a laundry list of injuries, including two torn ACLs, a torn groin and a torn shoulder. These setbacks resulted in just four UFC appearances for Cruz from 2012 to 2019.
Bet now: Full UFC Fight Night odds
The former champion returned to the octagon in 2020 and has fought twice more since, posting a 2-1 record in those bouts.
Vera has been far more active, competing in 12 fights over the past four years, winning nine of them. The 29-year-old enters as a -230 favourite and while we’re confident in his abilities, those juiced-up odds aren’t quite what we’re looking for.
A far more generous set of odds accompany Vera to win by decision at +150, something he has done in two of his last three victories.
Vera is a volume striker and a true brawler, landing 4.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.99. While Cruz holds a far more visually appealing ratio, 3.82 landed to 2.56 received, it isn’t necessarily reflective of how he’s been performing lately.
The veteran has absorbed 5.02 strikes per minute since his return three fights ago (201 in 39:58 minutes of fight time).
We’re going to give a clear edge to Vera here but still expect Cruz to last the full 25 minutes in front of a hometown crowd. Expect this one to go to decision with Vera coming out victorious on points.
Key stat: Vera has won 68% of his UFC fights via decision.
UFC Fight Night quick pick
Quick pick: fight to end via decision (-177)
This is a heck of a lot of juice but there’s not many other routes to take here if you want to stay in tow with our main pick.
Sitting at slightly longer odds than the fight to go the distance (-180), this pick doesn’t hold much value on its own but can serve as a solid piece of a parlay leg.
Vera has never lost a fight by any method other than decision, while 17 of Cruz’s 27 career bouts have ended at the judge’s table.
Odds as of 6:23 p.m. ET on 08/10/2022.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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