With the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs playing a doubleheader, the MLB schedule is packed to the brim with 16 games on the slate.
The pregame narrative: Will Smith should continue his pattern of lefty bashing, while Jose Ramirez draws a soft matchup and Stanton gets to tangle with a pitcher he’s dominated in the past.
Find our top MLB prop picks for July 16 below.
MLB prop picks overview
- Will Smith over 0.5 RBI (+130)
- Jose Ramirez over 0.5 RBI (+135)
- Giancarlo Stanton over 1.5 bases (+104)
Top MLB prop picks
Best bet: Will Smith over 0.5 RBI (+130)
We like to back cleanup hitters in good lineups on RBI props, especially when those cleanup hitters are on absolute heaters like Smith is.
Over his last eight games, the backstop is hitting .452/.541/.710 with nine RBI to his name. He’s got a great chance to keep that momentum going against Los Angeles Angels starter Jose Suarez, who has allowed an .816 OPS to right-handed hitters this year.
Smith is in the midst of a season where he is absolutely destroying left-handed pitching. The 27-year-old is hitting .339/.446/.565 against southpaws this season. He also hits behind a trio that’s been very strong against lefties as well.
| Player | AVG vs. LHP | OBP vs. LHP | SLG vs. LHP | wRC+ vs. LHP |
| Mookie Betts | .301 | .372 | .542 | 156 |
| Freddie Freeman | .284 | .363 | .450 | 132 |
| Trea Turner | .295 | .364 | .495 | 141 |
Against a middle-of-the-road southpaw who’s carrying a 4.79 ERA with a 4.48 xERA and 4.56 FIP, the Dodgers’ top four hitters are in a great position to produce. Smith is likely to be the one finishing off some of those rallies.
The Angels’ bullpen is also an unimpressive group with a 4.12 ERA and 23rd-ranked 1.1 fWAR, so a surprisingly good day from Suarez doesn’t necessarily bury this prop.
Key stat: Smith’s wRC+ against left-handed pitchers (185) ranks ninth among all qualified hitters.
Quick picks
Ramirez over 0.5 RBI (+135): We like the American League’s RBI leader on this line in most contexts, and he’s got a good chance to clear it on Saturday. He has been lights out against right-handed pitching this year (174 wRC+) and he’s facing an over-the-hill Michael Pineda who’s let hitters slash .286/.317/.502 off him from the left side over the last two seasons.
The third baseman is a solid 3-for-10 with two doubles in 11 meetings with Pineda in his career.
Read more: Home Run Derby odds
Stanton over 1.5 bases (+104): The Yankees slugger is heating up with four home runs in his last eight games, and he draws an opponent he’s dominated on Saturday. Stanton has faced Nick Pivetta 20 times and produced a .389 average while slugging .889 and registering three home runs, including a 114 mph blast when they met last Sunday.
Stanton’s power resume is beyond reproach, and when he gets a prime matchup he’s well worth a look on bases props — or a sprinkle on a home run prop.
Odds as of 10:07 a.m. on 07/16/2022.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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