Partner Content | Top MLB prop bets May 16: Count on Arizona’s Christian Walker to do damage vs. A’s lefty
All 30 MLB teams are playing tonight, giving us endless prop betting opportunities for the May 16 baseball slate.
The pregame narrative: We’re targeting two pitching props and counting on Christian Walker to continue hitting the ball with authority in his matchup with the Oakland A’s at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Check out our top MLB prop bets for May 16.
MLB odds as of 1:59 p.m. ET 05/16/2023.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet : Josiah Gray over 4.5 strikeouts (-129)
Gray is coming off a three-strikeout outing but he worked a season-high seven innings in the start. That’s part of what encourages us about this wager.
The longer Gray stays in the game, the better his chances of accumulating strikeouts. And he has been working deeper of late.
Gray has completed at least six innings in three of his last four starts. Over that stretch, he has topped this modest strikeout line in every start except his last one.
While he hasn’t been posting gaudy K numbers (7.9 K/9), the 25-year-old has shown before that he’s capable of retiring hitters on strikes. Gray fanned 9.3 batters per nine innings last season and 9.7 in 2021, his rookie year.
He had above-average strikeout rates in both of those seasons and piled up Ks along his minor league stops before that. The strikeouts should tick up and the Miami Marlins don’t represent the most difficult challenge.
Miami has the 10th-highest strikeout rate versus right-handers and hasn’t been doing damage against them, either. The Marlins have the National League’s lowest on-base percentage (.294) versus righties and are 25th in wRC+, hitting 17% below league average.
Key stat: Gray is averaging exactly five strikeouts per start.
Quick picks
Walker over 1.5 total bases (+104) : Walker has been a big source of power for the Arizona Diamondbacks, especially when the right-handed hitter is matched up with a lefty.
Walker is demolishing southpaws this season and we’re looking to take advantage of that in tonight’s game versus A’s southpaw Kyle Muller.
Here are Walker’s ranks against left-handers in a number of power categories:
| Stat | Production | MLB rank |
| HR | 5 | 1 |
| ISO | .409 | 6 |
| SLG% | .705 | 7 |
| OPS | 1.077 | 8 |
Walker also comes into tonight’s matchup in Oakland with a .308/.347/.585 slash line on the road.
Nick Pivetta under 15.5 outs (-109) : The Canadian hurler gets a softer matchup after back-to-back outings against the Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays, but we still see him as a fade-worthy play versus the Seattle Mariners.
While Pivetta isn’t a bad tail on his 4.5 strikeout prop (outside of the -167 price) against the MLB leaders in K rate, he’s shown no reason to believe he can work deep into games.
Pivetta has completed more than five innings in two of his seven starts and has been battered at home, where he’ll pitch tonight. He has a 6.30 ERA in four starts and has allowed six of his eight homers at Fenway Park.
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