:format(webp)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/sports/sports-betting/2022/07/30/tigers-vs-blue-jays-picks-and-odds-count-on-another-low-scoring-day/2022-07-CP161255023-Cropped.jpg "Partner Content | Tigers vs. Blue Jays picks and odds: Count on another low-scoring day")
After a shocking loss to the Detroit Tigers on Friday that included an Alek Manoah injury scare, the Toronto Blue Jays hope for smoother sailing on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: A series loss or split would be a brutal outcome for the Blue Jays, which puts heightened importance on this game. Toronto sends Ross Stripling to the mound while the Tigers counter with former Blue Jay Drew Hutchison.
Check out our Tigers vs. Blue Jays picks for July 30.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays picks overview
- Under 9 runs (-115)
- Blue Jays to score first and win (+112)
- Bo Bichette under 1.5 total bases (-110)
Tigers vs. Blue Jays picks
Best bet: Under 9 runs (-115)
The quality of the Blue Jays’ offence adds an element of danger to any under bet, but the stars are aligning in this matchup. That starts with Ross Stripling, who has produced numbers this season that supersede his modest reputation.
Stripling has the benefit of facing a Detroit lineup that is literally MLB’s worst against right-handed pitching (68 wRC+). That’s promising for the veteran considering he’s allowed more than two runs in just one of his nine starts since taking Hyun-jin Ryu’s rotation spot.
He also dominated Detroit in his only start of the season against them on June 12, allowing one base runner across six scoreless innings. That might be a tough performance to recreate, but Stripling is in a good spot.
The same can’t necessarily be said of Hutchison against the Blue Jays, but he’s always kept the Tigers in games this season. The right-hander hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any outing, despite mediocre overall numbers.
He also has a strong comfort level at Rogers Centre, where he owns a 3.27 ERA, and has held hitters to a .235/.299/.388 line in 206.2 innings.
Don’t expect a gem from Hutchison, but he may not be a doormat for the Blue Jays, especially if George Springer and Bo Bichette aren’t 100%.
Key stat: Five of the Blue Jays’ last eight games have come under this total, including every game in their series with the Tigers.
Quick picks
Blue Jays to score first and win (+112): There is a staggering amount of juice on a Blue Jays win here (-315), so we need to add a stipulation to find any value. While the Tigers hit first in this game, Stripling has been outstanding the first time through the order (1.93 ERA).
He should be able to hold Detroit down early, giving the Blue Jays a chance to strike first. From there they should show why they’re such heavy favourites — despite what happened on Friday.
Read more: Tigers vs. Blue Jays prop picks
Bichette under 1.5 bases (-110): The implied probability on this line (52.4%) almost exactly matches how often Bichette has failed to produce multiple total bases (52.6%).
We see additional value, though, because the shortstop got banged up on Thursday in a collision with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and may not be at his best. He’s also hitting further down the lineup in the John Schneider era, which decreases his probability of gaining an extra at-bat.
Odds as of 9:57 a.m. on 07/30/2022.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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