Partner Content | Rays vs. Blue Jays prop picks and odds: Rasmussen poised to pile up strikeouts

The Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Rays square off on Wednesday, a night after Toronto took over the No. 1 wild-card spot in the AL.

The pregame narrative: Drew Rasmussen and Ross Stripling are both great bets to eclipse their strikeout props, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the bat we trust most tonight.

Check out our Rays vs. Blue Jays prop picks for September 14.

Odds as of 10:17 a.m. on 09/14/2022.

Rays vs. Blue Jays prop picks

Best bet: Rasmussen over 4.5 Ks (+125)

Rasmussen, who earned AL Pitcher of the Month honours in August, has recently been racking up strikeouts at an uncharacteristically high rate.

The Rays starter has pitched 31 innings in his last five starts, generating 38 punchouts. That’s more Ks than he recorded over his previous 10 starts combined.

Rasmussen’s done this by leaning on his fastball more in recent outings. The 27-year-old has thrown the heater 38.5% of the time this season, but it’s been used 44-plus percent in four of his last six starts, according to FanGraphs.

The increased reliance on his fastball has resulted in a scale back of his slider, which Rasmussen has thrown less often than his season-long mark of 24.1% in nine of his last 10 contests.

He relies on hard stuff, which has led to a lot of success this season. His fastball has a -11 run value (the same as Rays ace Shane McClanahan), according to Baseball Savant, and his cutter has been even better.

Rasmussen’s cutter — his go-to putaway pitch — has a -12 run value, which is the third-best mark among MLB starters. The hard-throwing righty threw his cutter more than 50% of the time in his last start against the Yankees when he struck out a career-high 10 batters.

Bet on his revamped repertoire to get him over this number.

Key stat: Rasmussen has recorded five-plus strikeouts in four of his last five outings.

Quick picks

Stripling over 3.5 Ks (-139): Stripling has averaged a shade over six innings per start since the beginning of August. Longer appearances for the righty have led to more strikeouts.

The Blue Jays starter has topped this number in all five appearances during this stretch. That’s a huge uptick from the six times he eclipsed that mark through his first 15 starts.

The Rays also have the majors’ sixth-highest strikeout rate against righties with a mark of 23.8%.

Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 total bases (+128): Although Rasmussen’s been untouchable, Guerrero has had success against him in the past.

The first baseman has four hits in 13 plate appearances against the pitcher, including a pair of doubles. Additionally, Guerrero has topped this total in four of his last six games, making this a value play at plus money.

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