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A pair of viable Cy Young contenders meet on the mound Saturday in Game 1 of a doubleheader between the Blue Jays and Rays.
The pregame narrative: Toronto’s Kevin Gausman struck out 10 batters in seven shutout innings his last time out, while Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan fanned 10 over seven innings of one-run ball. A win in Game 1 would give the Blue Jays a series victory.
Check out our best Rays vs. Blue Jays Game 1 picks for July 2.
Rays vs. Blue Jays picks overview
- Rays moneyline, first five innings (+123)
- Rays under 3.5 runs (-129)
- Under 3.5 runs, first five innings (-105)
Rays vs. Blue Jays picks
Best bet: Rays moneyline, F5 (+123)
The version of McClanahan that we saw last year was relatively raw. This year’s version is supremely refined.
McClanahan altered his pitch mix ahead of his sophomore season, demoting the slider from his top secondary choice to No. 4 on the depth chart. Meanwhile, far nastier curveballs and changeups emerged.
| 2021 pitch stats | Pitch% | BA | wOBA |
| Curveball | 16.3 | .202 | .212 |
| Changeup | 8.0 | .393 | .480 |
| 2022 pitch stats | Pitch% | BA | wOBA |
| Curveball | 25.5 | .133 | .162 |
| Changeup | 22.6 | .136 | .120 |
McClanahan produced solid stats against the Blue Jays last season, with a 3.14 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 14.1 innings. But the way he’s throwing, he could be even tougher on them now. He leads the AL with a 1.77 ERA, which has helped him rise to second in the AL Cy Young odds.
Read more: Odds to win the AL Cy Young
Of course, Gausman is pretty good, too. His 1.70 FIP is the best in baseball, and he’s coming off his best start in more than a month. With that said, he did take the F5 loss when he faced the Rays back in May.
Runs should be at a premium on both sides, but we’ll take the plus-money value on the Rays’ side. The Blue Jays will get their first look at McClanahan circa 2022, and they likely won’t enjoy what they see.
Key stat: McClanahan owns a 12.12 K/9 rate (second in MLB), as well as a 97th-percentile whiff rate and a 95th-percentile expected ERA.
Quick picks
Rays under 3.5 runs (-129): Even though we like the Rays’ chances to win the first half of the game, we’re not expecting them to pile up the runs. Tampa Bay has fallen below this number in four consecutive games, averaging just 3.4 runs over its last 10 games.
Oh, and Gausman’s numbers against this lineup are very, very good:
| PA | BA | wOBA | SLG | K% |
| 42 | .167 | .203 | .310 | 26.2% |
Under 3.5 runs, F5 (-105): Even with Friday’s offensive outburst for the Blue Jays, the F5 under is 4-1 in games played between these squads in 2022.
We’ve made our case regarding the excellence of both starters, particularly with how Gausman has fared against this lineup and how McClanahan has fared overall. Don’t count on much action early.
Odds as of 9:25 a.m. ET on 07/02/22.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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