The Los Angeles Rams have a chance to gain a stranglehold on the NFC West if they roll into San Francisco and take down the 49ers.
The pregame narrative: Deebo Samuel can threaten the Rams’ defence in various ways, Jimmy Garropolo could chip away at Los Angeles with the short passing game and Cam Akers is unlikely to have a big day.
Check out our Rams vs. 49ers Week 4 prop picks for October 3.
Odds as of 5:15 p.m. on 10/02/2022.
Rams vs. 49ers Week 4 prop picks
Best Bet: Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown (+105)
In past years, when top wide receivers played the Rams the best move was to avoid backing them or even consider a fade. Superstar corner Jalen Ramsey could move around the formation, but when he locked onto a top receiver it was bad news.
That hasn’t been true this year as the 27-year-old has conceded 14 catches and two touchdowns in two games.
We’re not willing to write off Ramsey yet, but even at his best, he’d have a hard time tracking Samuel —who can play any receiver position or show up in the backfield. As a result, he’s as close to matchup-proof as a skill position player can be.
Entering the season there was some concern that his role as a part-time runner would be diminished, but he’s already produced 111 rushing yards through three weeks — and the absence of Elijah Mitchell opens the door for him to take some goal-line carries.
Starting running back Jeff Wilson Jr. doesn’t have a rushing touchdown this season, and at 6’0“ 194 pounds, he’s not an intimidating red-zone presence.
We like the value on Samuel to score at plus-odds in his current Swiss Army role, especially with Garoppolo — who got 36.9% of his yardage last year throwing to Deebo — back behind centre.
Key stat: Samuel has 12 touchdowns in his last 11 regular-season games, including three scores in two games against the Rams.
Quick picks
Garoppolo over 19.5 completions (-103): This is an ambitious number for a guy who leads a run-heavy offence, but the Rams’ defence is likely to help him reach this total.
Quarterbacks who face Los Angeles average 26.7 completions per contest and complete a whopping 69.6% of their passes. Those numbers are borne out of an emphasis on shutting down the deep passing game, as the Rams haven’t allowed a pass longer than 30 yards this season.
Los Angeles is happy to allow quarterbacks to try and beat them by connecting on a high quantity of underneath passes, and Garoppolo will likely take what he’s given.
Akers under 44.5 rushing yards (-117): Although the Rams running back has improved since posting zero rushing yards in the 2022 season opener, he’s still only cleared this line once this year.
He also hasn’t shown much explosiveness since returning from an Achilles injury last season, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry in eight appearances. It doesn’t help that he’s dealing with a stout run defence that entered Week 4 allowing just 2.8 yards per carry — the second-lowest total in the NFL.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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