Partner Content | Phillies vs. Braves picks for Sunday Night Baseball: Strider should dominate at home

NL Cy Young co-favourite Spencer Strider takes the mound for the Atlanta Braves tonight for Sunday Night Baseball against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The pregame narrative: Strider hasn’t been his absolute best in recent starts, but he’s still racking up strikeouts and giving his side a good chance to win. We’ve got a pair of plus-money picks for this matchup tonight, and both involve Strider and the Braves coming out on top.

Check out our Phillies vs. Braves picks and odds for Sunday Night Baseball.

MLB odds as of 11:25 a.m. ET on 05/28/23.

Phillies vs. Braves picks

Best Bet : Braves win, Strider 9+ Ks (+114)

Strider’s jersey number matches his K-rate percentile ranking: 99.

Yes, his 41.5% K-rate is in the 99th percentile, per Baseball Savant, which has shown itself with some gaudy strikeout totals so far this season.

Strider has an MLB-high 97 strikeouts over 10 starts, for an average of 9.7 per outing. He’s hit the nine-strikeout mark eight times already.

Atlanta has lost two of Strider’s past three starts, but that is well out of the ordinary. On the year, the Braves are 8-2 when their young ace takes the mound.

The Braves have lost back-to-back games against the Phillies, but Strider gives the home squad a hefty advantage. He went 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in three starts against Philadelphia last year, allowing exactly one run apiece in those outings.

Taking the Braves on the moneyline (-265) isn’t a very exciting play. But pairing that with a strikeout line Strider is clearing frequently gets us to plus money.

Key stat: Strider owns a remarkable 38.7% K-rate against the current Phillies lineup, as well as a .127 opponent BA.

Quick picks

Braves to score first and win (+104) : Most offences struggle to figure Strider out at all, but that’s especially true the first time through the order.

The right-handed fireballer has held opponents to a .480 OPS on the first trip through the order, and his ERA through a game’s first three innings is just 2.70.

Atlanta is the home side, which means it’ll bat second. That poses somewhat of a risk, but we like Strider to hold down the fort early. And given that the Braves score a first-inning run 44.2% of the time (second in MLB, per TeamRankings), Strider could easily be staked with an early lead.

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JH

Jordan Horrobin writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. The Star’s parent company has a minority interest in NorthStar Bets. Follow him on Twitter: @JordanHorrobin

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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