Partner Content | Packers vs. Dolphins same-game parlay picks: Fade Tua, but back the Dolphins on Christmas Day
All the Green Bay Packers want for Christmas is to stay alive in the playoff race, but the Miami Dolphins have their own postseason situation to worry about.
The pregame narrative: The Dolphins have largely dominated from the warm climate of Miami, but we don’t expect Tua Tagovailoa to have a field day through the air. Also, Packers running back AJ Dillon has solid value to score for a fourth consecutive game.
Check out our best Packers vs. Dolphins same-game parlay picks for December 25.
Odds as of 11:41 a.m. on 12/23/2022.
Packers vs. Dolphins same-game parlay picks
Dolphins moneyline + Tua Tagovailoa under 274.5 passing yards + AJ Dillon anytime TD (+950)
Dolphins ML (-195): Miami has gotta be thankful to be home for the holidays — and not just because of the Florida weather.
The Dolphins went winless on a three-game road stint, capped by a 32-29 defeat in the blustery conditions of Buffalo. Prior to that, Miami lost to the playoff-hopeful Los Angeles Chargers and the NFC West-winning San Francisco 49ers.
That’s a tough three-game stretch, and you could argue Green Bay will put up a good fight, too (which explains why we’re avoiding the spread for this SGP). But Miami is 5-1 at home this season, while the Packers are just 2-5 on the road.
We’re also skeptical about the Packers’ ability to topple a winning team. Green Bay is only 1-6 against above-.500 teams this season.
Tagovailoa under 274.5 passing yards (-114): This is not an indictment on Tagovailoa, but rather a vote of confidence for the Packers pass defence.
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Green Bay has allowed the second-fewest pass yards per game (185.1), and only one quarterback has thrown for 275 yards or more against this unit. That quarterback was Ryan Tannehill, oddly enough, but the likes of Josh Allen, Tom Brady and Jalen Hurts fell short.
Our praise for Green Bay’s pass defence must include one caveat — the run defence has been brutal. The Packers allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game (148.9), and the Dolphins showed last week that they can ramp up the run game.
Tagovailoa has fallen under this line in consecutive games and is averaging 269.8 pass yards per season.
Dillon anytime TD (+123): Miami has the 27th-ranked scoring defence, allowing 24.6 points per game, so we’re taking a plus-money shot that really boosts the multiplier on this parlay.
Dillon, who scored twice in Monday’s win over the Rams, has now found the end zone in three consecutive weeks. He was evaluated for a concussion during the game, but he cleared concussion protocol that night and again on Tuesday.
The bruising back had five red zone carries last week, and that kind of opportunity helps to offset the fact that he’s in a timeshare with Aaron Jones.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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