Partner Content | NLCS Game 4 Padres vs. Phillies picks: Back the over in a sub-par pitching matchup

Neither team is rolling with its ace, or even an ace-adjacent in this matchup, so we’re going to look toward the over.

Falter hasn’t thrown an inning this postseason and was primarily used as Philadelphia’s No. 5 starter in the latter half of the season. Rob Thompson is hoping for Falter to get once through the order before moving to a series of arms, one which could include Noah Syndergaard.

Anything can happen in October — Falter and Syndergaard could combine for seven scoreless innings — with that said, we’re more inclined to bet on this not working out.

Falter has shown flashes of brilliance but hasn’t tasted the postseason and will be in for a maximum of three innings. The Padres should be quick to jump on the 25-year-old southpaw who hasn’t performed well at Citizens Bank Park. Falter has a home ERA of 5.49 this season.

The Padres will probably have to light up the Phillies, and there’s a good chance of that happening with Clevinger on the mound. The 31-year-old struggled mightily to close out the season and got shelled in his lone postseason appearance against the Dodgers, giving up four earned runs in 2.2 IP.

The outing marked the fifth time in Clevinger’s last seven starts where he’s given up four-plus earned runs.

Key stat: Five of Philadelphia’s nine postseason games have gone over this total.

Quick picks

Bryce Harper over 1.5 total bases (+125): If we’re expecting runs, someone is going to have to do damage. Who better than Harper to turn to? The 2021 MVP has been lighting it up this postseason, hitting .400/.432/.857 with four home runs.

He has a hit in all games but one and has gone over this line in six of nine contests, including four of his last five.

Interestingly, Harper has never faced Clevinger. That said, we expect him to familiarize himself with San Diego’s long-haired righty soon enough.

Phillies moneyline (-109): We think the Fighting Phils will take a commanding 3-1 lead in this game. With both teams turning out sub-par pitching, we’re inclined to back the hotter offence and home team.

Philadelphia is undefeated at Citizens Bank this postseason, averaging seven runs per game at home.

The Padres have experienced outbursts of offence but have also been held to two or fewer runs in three of their past five games.

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