Partner Content | NFL wild-card underdog picks: Expect the Jaguars and Giants to pull off upsets

The Jaguars are slim 1-point underdogs against Justin Herbert and the Chargers but they’re an underdog, nonetheless.

Jacksonville forced its way into the playoff picture by winning six of its last seven games, including each of its last five.

During that winning streak, the Jaguars averaged 29.2 points per game while allowing just 15.6. They also rank third in DVOA (+33.4%) and fifth in offensive DVOA (+19.1%) from weeks 14 to 18, according to Football Outsiders.

Make no mistake, the Chargers have been great during that timeframe, too. Los Angeles won four of its last five heading into the playoffs and has the sixth-best DVOA (+29.7%) over that span.

These are two solid teams and this should be a tight game but Jacksonville’s home-field advantage in conjunction with some L.A. injury concerns has us confident the Jags will come out on top.

Doug Pederson’s squad has won each of its past four home games against some impressive opponents, including the Dallas Cowboys and a healthy Baltimore Ravens.

Mike Williams also suffered a back contusion in Week 18 and is questionable to suit up on Saturday.

Key stat: Jacksonville beat Los Angeles 38-10 in Week 3.

Quick picks

Giants ML (+135): The Giants held a 13-10 fourth-quarter lead over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16 before eventually losing on a last-second field goal. We think the G-Men can clean up some mistakes and upset the Vikings on the road.

Minnesota ranks 27th in DVOA (+6.7%) this season and has a minus-three point differential despite going 13-4. The Vikings have closed out plenty of close games but aren’t four wins better than the Giants.

Minny’s defence allows 4.5 yards per rushing attempt (22nd in the NFL), so expect the Giants to unleash a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley on Sunday.

Ravens +6.5 (-110): The Ravens basically conceded their Week 18 contest against the Bengals by resting J.K. Dobbins and Mark Andrews, among others. They also had to start Anthony Brown under centre thanks to a lingering Lamar Jackson injury that’s kept him sidelined since Week 13.

Assuming Jackson plays on Sunday, we’re liking Baltimore’s chances of covering this spread. That’s largely because the Ravens’ defence has been elite since trading for Roquan Smith:

Joe Burrow and the Bengals are on a heater but the Ravens won this divisional showdown 19-17 in Week 5 and won’t go down easy.

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