Partner Content | NBA playoff prop bets May 8: Fade Julius Randle in Miami
There are two NBA games on Monday night and we’re going to be backing one prop from each of them.
The pregame narrative: Julius Randle has gone cold for the New York Knicks and we’re fading him against the Miami Heat’s stout defence. D’Angelo Russell remains a solid bet on his points prop until proven otherwise.
Here are our NBA prop bets for the playoff action on May 8.
NBA odds as of 9:40 a.m. ET on 05/08/23.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet : Randle under 22.5 points (-106)
Randle’s been nothing short of a disappointment for the Knicks these playoffs and we see no trends suggesting he’ll break out of this slump now.
New York’s power forward is averaging nearly 10 points fewer in the playoffs than he was in the regular season (25.1 to 15.3) and has fallen under this total in all but one postseason game. He’s also shooting an unimpressive 34.6% from the field and is coming off a 10-point, 4 for 15 performance in Game 3.
If we’re going to cut Randle any sort of slack, it’s that his opponents are menacing defensively. The Cleveland Cavaliers — who the Knicks played in round one — own the best scoring defence while the Heat rank second (109.8).
Miami also does well to limit opposing power forwards from scoring. The Heat give up the eighth-fewest PPG to that position, according to Fantasy Pros.
But a good player’s job is to perform regardless of who is defending and Randle just can’t do that at the moment. That may be because he’s still nursing an ankle injury or it may not but either way, fading him is the right call.
Key stat: Randle has gone under this total in six of seven playoff games.
Quick pick
Russell over 16.5 points (-127) : Russell was one of three Lakers to put up a 20-spot on Saturday night. He accomplished that by dropping 21 points on 8 of 13 shooting in just 29 minutes of action.
That marked the sixth time in nine postseason games that Russell has scored 17 or more points. We like his chances of staying hot tonight.
The Warriors allow the fifth-most PPG to opposing point guards (25.70) as well as the second-most 3-pointers (3.22). They also owned the third-worst road defensive rating (118.3) during the regular season.
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