:format(webp)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/sports/sports-betting/2023/03/15/march-madness-round-1-upset-picks-oral-roberts-deserves-a-look/2023-03-CP120275081.jpg "Partner Content | March Madness Round 1 upset picks: Oral Roberts deserves a look")
True to its name, March Madness is bound to have some upsets. The question is, which teams can pull them off?
The pregame narrative: It’s pure coincidence that two of our picks have “Golden” in their nicknames, but we do feel good about what No. 12 Oral Roberts and No. 13 Kent State bring to the table. Also, No. 11 Providence appears to pair well with its first-round opponent, Kentucky.
Here are our best March Madness Round 1 upset picks for NCAA tournament games on March 16-17.
NCAA basketball odds as of 9:10 a.m. ET on 03/15/2023.
March Madness Round 1 upset picks
Best Bet : Oral Roberts (+205)
Two years removed from dancing to the Sweet 16 as a 15-seed, Oral Roberts is back as a dangerous underdog in the NCAA tournament.
The Golden Eagles bulldozed through the Summit League in perfect fashion, compiling the first 30-win season in school history. They rank 27th in minutes continuity compared to last year’s squad, and they’re 12th among tournament teams in experience. In other words, the national spotlight won’t be too bright.
NCAA bracket: Play the bracket here
Oral Roberts’ most important carryover is undoubtedly Max Abmas, a senior guard whose 22.2 points per game leads all tourney players. Abmas, who shoots 38.1% from beyond the arc, scored 25-plus points in all three of ORU’s March Madness games in 2021.
The formula for No. 12 Oral Roberts to defeat No. 5 Duke is simple: get hot from 3-point range.
The Golden Eagles attempt more than 45% of their shots from deep, so they’ll live or die by that scoring method. They usually live, but their 83-45 loss to Houston in November — in which ORU went 8-of-38 from outside — shows what happens when disaster strikes.
We’re seeking an opportunity, though, not a sure thing. As we’ve already seen in recent memory, Oral Roberts has what it takes to author an upset.
Key stat: The Golden Eagles have the longest active win streak in the country (17 games).
Quick picks
Kent State (+138) : Though we haven’t seen the Golden Flashes pull off any notable upsets this year, they hung tough in three top-notch road games during the non-conference slate.
Kent State lost by two against 12-seed Charleston, by five against 1-seed Houston and by seven against 3-seed Gonzaga. They led or were tied inside the final four minutes of all of those games.
Though Kent is undersized, it forces turnovers at a high clip (22.6% turnover rate, 20th in NCAA). Count on the Flashes to give No. 4 Indiana a fight.
Providence (+135) : This wouldn’t constitute a major upset, but No. 11 Providence is a sensible plus-money pick over No. 6 Kentucky because the teams match up well.
Both squads rebound well on the offensive glass and rely more on underneath scoring to yield an above-average offensive efficiency. The Friars do a great job of getting to the free throw line (22.2 attempts per game, 24th in NCAA) and generally don’t return the favour, which could make the difference.
Also, Kentucky has a pair of losses on its schedule (vs. South Carolina, at Georgia) that are worse than any of Providence’s defeats. Another faceplant from the Wildcats could be in order.
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