Partner Content | Maple Leafs betting trends: Goaltending decline leading to overs

The Toronto Maple Leafs enter the holiday break with plenty to feel good about.

The team is second only to the Boston Bruins in the ultra-competitive Atlantic division, areas of perceived weakness like defence and goaltending have been strengths, and the offence is humming along as many expected.

There is one crack starting to form in the foundation, though, and it’ll be the first item in the latest Maple Leafs betting trends.

Maple Leafs betting trends

Goaltending starting to slip

At large, nobody’s going to complain about Toronto’s goaltending as we enter the break. The squad ranks fourth in team save percentage (.915), according to Natural Stat Trick. Matt Murray owns a sterling .925 save percentage while Ilya Samsonov is not far behind at .924. Anybody who’s emotionally or financially invested in the Maple Leafs is surely happy about these numbers.

When you look more recently at the netminding performances, though, there’s some reason for concern. The Buds are tied with the Seattle Kraken for the sixth-worst save percentage in the league (.886) over the last two weeks. Neither Murray nor Samsonov has been impressive during this stretch.

The sample sizes are small for each goaltender, but bettors need to be reactive to change. A slip in play between the pipes has caused the over on 6.5 goals to hit in four of Toronto’s last six. The over had come through on that number in just one of its previous six games before this current run.

Bettors should be more inclined to bet the over when the Maple Leafs return.

Michael Bunting is on fire

If there’s anybody who may be a little upset about the holidays arriving, it’s Michael Bunting.

The tenacious winger’s on an absolute tear, and we’re sure he’d love to keep it rolling. He has a point in 12 of his last 13 outings, totalling 14 during this stretch. It all started with helpers, as he had no goals and nine assists through the first seven games of this run. The opposite has been true over his last six, though, as he has five markers and no assists.

His impressive numbers are a result of playing alongside Auston Matthews and William Nylander on the first line, while also logging minutes on the top power-play unit.

The latter is new for Bunting, as the Maple Leafs have transitioned to a five-forward grouping with injuries to key blueliners.

Bunting ranks second on Toronto with 16 high-danger chances over the last two weeks, and he’s a reliable option to notch a point or goal considering his deployment.

William Nylander’s been automatic

No matter which market you pick out for Nylander at this point, there’s a good chance the over is hitting.

Wagering on him to score a goal? Good choice. He has a lamp-lighter in three consecutive contests and nine of his last 13. Banking on him to record two points or more? Excellent call. He’s hit that mark in four of his last seven. One area, in particular, that’s really impressing fans and bettors this year, though, is his willingness to shoot the puck.

His 11.4 shots per 60 is the best mark of his career, a whole shot ahead of his 10.4 rate from last season. He’s tied with Auston Matthews for the team lead in the category with 30 over the last two weeks.

His propensity to pepper puckstoppers has led him to go over 3.5 shots in nine of his last 10. Bettors should feel comfortable backing the over anytime his shot prop is set at this line.

Home-Road splits

There’s no doubt that Toronto’s a much better team to back on home ice than the road this year.

At Scotiabank Arena, the Maple Leafs are 13-2-3 and the eighth-most profitable team to back on the moneyline, according to Covers. They’re a lacklustre 6-12 as a puckline favourite at home, but they’ve won four wins of their last six against the number.

On the road, however, it’s the exact opposite. Toronto’s won just eight of its 16 away outings and is the 19th-most profitable team to back on the moneyline. Oddly enough, it owns a better puckline record (6-10) on the road than home.

Here’s how the Maple Leafs grade out in some key stats on home vs. the road.

This is pretty confusing to digest. The stats state the Maple Leafs get noticeably better goaltending and marginally better penalty killing on the road, yet allow a sizeably higher number of goals per game.

What we can extrapolate that makes some sort of sense, however, is that the power play is much stronger at home and a big reason why they’re averaging half a goal more per game.

While home moneylines are often met with plenty of juice, bettors should look to take the over on home team totals for Toronto, and think twice when the Maple Leafs are on the road.

Bet on Maple Leafs to win second period

No team dominates the middle frame quite like Toronto.

Defensively, the team is locking it down better than any other in the second period. Its 20 goals against are the fewest of any team in the league, and six fewer than the next closest squad (Calgary Flames). The Maple Leafs have allowed just five second-period goals across their last 10 contests.

Conversely, the offence is dominating play during the middle 20. Toronto’s 42 goals in the second are more than it has scored in any other period. The Buds have tallied 15 second-period goals in their last 10 contests.

Wagering on Toronto to win the second period or taking the under on its opponent’s goal total during the frame are two markets bettors should look to target moving forward.

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