Partner Content | Lightning vs. Maple Leafs picks and odds: Back Tampa Bay as underdogs

The Toronto Maple Leafs look to end a small skid when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has dropped two consecutive games since recording a point in 15 straight contests. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has been on fire, winning each of its past five games by multiple goals.

Check out our Lightning vs. Maple Leafs picks for December 20.

Odds as of 9:01 a.m. on 12/20/2022.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs picks

Best Bet : Lightning ML (+118)

After a shaky start to the season, the Lightning are back and looking like the team that’s been to three straight Stanley Cup Finals. Tampa has won 13 of its last 16 games, including each of its previous five.

The Bolts’ current win streak has been impressive. They’ve won by at least three goals in each game and have a plus-18 goal differential in that span. The offence is clicking and the goaltending has been superb — it’s a tall task to beat this team right now.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is back in Vezina form with a 1.67 GAA and a .942 save percentage in December. He’ll be between the pipes tonight going opposite Matt Murray.

Toronto’s stellar 11-2-3 home record could be a concern for this bet but Tampa has also been solid on the road (8-5). The Leafs appear to be cooling off a little, too.

After securing a point in 15 straight games, Toronto has lost each of its last two. Its latest loss was a 5-2 drumming at the hands of the Washington Capitals on Friday.

Key stat: The Lightning have a three-game winning streak over the Leafs dating back to Game 6 of last year’s playoff matchup.

Quick picks

Under 6.5 goals (-129): A total of seven goals were scored the last time these teams met but we wouldn’t count on that being replicated. Toronto held a 2-1 lead heading into the third period before four goals were scored in that frame plus overtime to go over this total.

Both Vasilevskiy and Murray have been having strong months and we expect them to hold down their creases.

And for all the offence the Leafs have, overs aren’t really their thing. Toronto has gone over its total in just 37.5% of its games, the third-lowest mark in the NHL.

Leafs under 0.5 PP goals (+110): The Leafs haven’t scored a power-play goal in three straight games and we expect that streak to continue tonight.

Toronto’s PP is very much a middle-of-the-road unit this season. The Leafs have drawn 103 man advantages (16th) and are operating at a 23.3% clip (13th).

On top of that, Tampa’s 81 percent PK% ranks eighth in the NHL.

AP

Avery Perri writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @AveryPerri

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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