:format(webp)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/sports/sports-betting/2023/05/24/heat-vs-celtics-picks-and-odds-game-5-bet-on-jayson-tatum-to-deliver-another-30-point-effort/2023-05-jaysontatum_may242023.jpg "Partner Content | Heat vs. Celtics picks and odds, Game 5: Bet on Jayson Tatum to deliver another 30-point effort")
Partner Content | Heat vs. Celtics picks and odds, Game 5: Bet on Jayson Tatum to deliver another 30-point effort
The Eastern Conference finals are going back to Boston after the Celtics avoided a four-game sweep.
The pregame narrative: Boston showed signs of life in a comfortable Game 4 victory that set it up as a sizeable favourite at home Thursday night. The Celtics lost both previous games of this series at TD Garden but are -7.5 on the spread and a -295 moneyline favourite as of Wednesday afternoon.
Check out our best bets in our Heat vs. Celtics picks for Game 5 on May 25.
NBA odds as of 2:58 p.m. on 05/24/2023.
Heat vs. Celtics picks
Best Bet : Jayson Tatum over 29.5 points (-134)
After staving off elimination to force another game back home, expect the Celtics to be more competitive once again in Game 5.
They are a difficult side to back, though, as there’s no value on them to win and the spread is a number we’d prefer staying away from after Miami took the first three games.
No one is scoring for the Celtics outside of Jayson Tatum. His main sidekick, Jaylen Brown, produced a 22-point effort in Game 1 and hasn’t touched 20 since. Boston’s next leading playoff scorers — Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon — have been held to single digits twice this series.
The offensive load squarely rests on Tatum’s shoulders and he’ll need to deliver if Boston is going to keep its season alive again.
Tatum has had some well-documented off nights in the postseason, but he’s been a scoring machine more often than not.
The 25-year-old star has scored 30-plus points three times this series and has done so in five of his last seven playoff games. That of course includes his 51-point masterpiece in Game 7 against the 76ers.
He got to the line a lot in the first two games (taking 23 combined shots) and has jacked seven-plus attempts from deep three times. That combination can help him put up points in a hurry.
Volume won’t be an issue for Tatum in Game 5. As long as he’s semi-efficient, which we’re willing to bet on, he should top this number.
Key stat: Tatum has scored 30-plus points in seven of his last 12 games.
Quick picks
Kevin Love under 4.5 rebounds (-110) : Love’s minutes are down and, unsurprisingly, so are his numbers. Here’s a look at his averages in each of Miami’s three playoff series:
| Series | Minutes | Rebounds | Points |
| Vs. Bucks | 21.8 | 7.4 | 9.8 |
| Vs. Knicks | 19.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Vs. Heat | 12.0 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
Love was held to 12 minutes on Tuesday and five minutes in Game 3. Those were two of his three-lowest totals this entire postseason. He got 15 and 16 minutes of run, respectively, in the two games before that.
Getting five-plus rebounds from him in the limited action he’s seeing is asking for a lot.
Heat over 103.5 points (-122) : Miami averaged 120.6 points over its three wins to kick off this series, so we’re not inclined to fade its offence after a 99-point showing in Game 4.
Boston’s defence has not been great this postseason and it’s fair to say Miami’s offence has been much better than expected, especially considering it has been without Tyler Herro (20.1 points/game in the regular season) for all but 19 minutes.
The Heat topped this number in four of six games versus the Knicks and in all five first-round contests against the Bucks. Miami faced Boston four times in the regular season and cleared this total three times.
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