Partner Content | Commanders vs. Bears Week 6 picks and odds: Back Washington on Thursday Night Football
The Chicago Bears host the Washington Commanders to close out Week 6 on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Washington has lost four in a row, but the Bears are ill-equipped to exploit their opponent’s Achilles’ heel. Justin Fields’ passing numbers have improved lately, and the Commanders’ offence is more worthy of trust heading into this matchup.
Check out our Commanders vs. Bears Week 6 picks for October 13.
Odds as of 1:01 p.m. on 10/12/2022.
Commanders vs. Bears picks Week 6 picks
[Best Bet] : Commanders moneyline (-109)
The Commanders have been a tough team to trust since their impressive Week 1 win.
That’s primarily because their defence has been nothing short of horrendous. Unfortunately for the Bears, they are likely to have a hard time exploiting this.
Chicago is by far the most run-heavy team in the NFL, attempting just 17.6 passes per game — seven fewer attempts than the 31st-ranked team. This is a ground-and-pound unit the likes of which the NFL hasn’t seen in years, and Washington’s defence is quite stout against the run.
| Rushing yards | NFL rank | Yards/carry | NFL rank | Rush defence DVOA | NFL rank |
| 553 | 14th | 4.2 | 11th | -17.8% | 6th |
The Commanders’ pass defence (29th by DVOA with a 101.4 passer rating against) has been a disaster, but Chicago doesn’t seem likely to make them pay for it.
On offence, Washington can lead on a competent passing game that ranks sixth in the NFL in yardage (1,390) and tied for fifth in touchdowns (10). Those numbers are driven by chasing game script, but they show that Carson Wentz can move the ball in between critical mistakes.
Washington’s rushing offence should get a boost as rookie Brian Robinson Jr. continues to take on a bigger role after his Week 5 return. He didn’t make a massive impact in his debut (22 yards), but should be an upgrade on Antonio Gibson, who has averaged just 3.2 yards per carry this season.
Key stat: The Commanders have outgained the Bears by 338 yards this season while allowing 108 fewer yards on defence.
Quick picks
Fields over 170.5 passing yards (-110): While the Bears passing offence isn’t efficient or prolific, this line is a touch low. Fields has hit this over in consecutive games as his passing usage has trended up, and he did so against far better passing defences than he’ll see on Thursday.
We’re not anticipating a breakout game for Fields, but the Commanders have allowed opposing QBs to average 235 yards per contest with an 11:1 touchdown to interception ratio.
Commanders first to 15 points (+100): While the Commanders’ offence stalled out against elite defences like the Eagles and Cowboys, they should have more success against a Bears team that’s firmly in the middle of the pack.
Chicago has failed to reach 15 points in two of its last four games, and its yards per game (274.0) ranks 31st in the NFL.
Interested in a same-game parlay? A two-leg SGP bet on the Commanders ML and Justin Fields over 170.5 passing yards would generate odds of +235.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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