Partner Content | Chargers vs. Colts Week 16 picks and odds: Fade Indianapolis on Monday Night Football

Indianapolis’ offence is experiencing some major changes and none of them are for the better.

Let’s start in the backfield, where the most important member of the unit, Jonathan Taylor, suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 15. Even in a trying year for the Colts, the game-changing back was able to rush for 861 yards on 4.5 yards per carry. His injury paves the way for Zack Moss and Deon Jackson, and neither is remotely close to being the type of talent Taylor is.

Earlier this week, Nick Foles was tabbed as the starter for this contest, replacing Matt Ryan. This marks Foles’ first start since Week 16 of last year.

Adding to all of this change is also the inexperience Jeff Saturday brings as a head coach. This will only be his sixth game as a bench boss and scheming an offensive attack without your best player on offence and a new QB is a difficult thing to do on little more than a week’s notice.

The recent play of Los Angeles’ defence makes this a surprisingly difficult matchup. The Chargers are allowing a minuscule 19.3 points per game to opponents over their past three outings, and their defence ranks 12th in DVOA over this stretch, according to Football Outsiders.

Key stat: Foles’ teams have failed to clear this total in eight of his 12 starts since 2019.

Quick picks

Chargers -4.5 (-112): Los Angeles is getting healthier on both sides of the ball as its injury report suggests only Kemon Hall will miss Monday’s game. That means star safety Derwin James is likely returning, and he’s a major boost to a defence that’s already playing much better.

Offensively, it’s been huge for the squad to have both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back the past two weeks. The WR duo have combined for 361 receiving yards in that span, giving Justin Herbert some legitimate options in the passing game.

Under 45.5 points (-114): We’re already betting on very little from the Colts’ offence, making it very hard for the over on the game total to come through.

The under on this total has hit in three of Saturday’s five games as head coach of the team. With the offence stumbling and missing its top player, it’ll be even harder than usual for Indy to muster anything.

Surprisingly, the Chargers have played in low-scoring games of late with the under on this total coming through in back-to-back contests.

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