:format(webp)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/sports/sports-betting/2023/05/27/blue-jays-vs-twins-prop-bets-back-bassitt-guerrero-on-102-parlay/2023-05-CP167024136-1.jpg "Partner Content | Blue Jays vs. Twins prop bets: Back Bassitt, Guerrero on +102 parlay")
The Toronto Blue Jays have a road matchup against the Minnesota Twins on Saturday, and we’ve got three prop bets on the visitors’ side.
The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt has been dealing lately, and we’re looking for him to hit a reasonable strikeout total while also seeking a hit from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Additionally, Brandon Belt has reliably delivered a hit in most games this month.
Check out our top Blue Jays vs. Twins prop bets for May 27.
MLB odds as of 9:50 a.m. ET on 05/27/23.
Blue Jays vs. Twins prop bets
Best Bet : Bassitt 5+ Ks, Guerrero 1+ hits (+102)
Bassitt hasn’t faced the Twins since 2021, but he’s seen some of their top hitters at stops elsewhere. And the results have been quite good.
In 54 plate appearances against active Twins hitters, Bassitt has accrued 16 strikeouts, which works out to a 29.6% K-rate. As Baseball Savant denotes, most of those matchups came against Minnesota regulars Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo and Donovan Solano.
Bassitt is not a big strikeout guy, but he doesn’t really need to be in this matchup.
The Twins have the league’s highest strikeout rate overall (26.2%), and the second-highest rate against righties (25.7%).
Bassitt has pitched into the seventh inning or later in six of his past seven starts, and that type of volume should get him to this number.
There’s far too much juice for us to advise taking Bassitt over 4.5 Ks (-230) on its own. But one hit from Guerrero makes a world of difference from a price standpoint.
Guerrero has only met Twins starter Pablo Lopez once, going 1-for-2 with a triple against him two seasons ago. This year, Vlad Jr. has notched a hit in 38 of 47 (80.9%) games.
Key stat: Bassitt has 5+ Ks in seven of his past nine starts.
Quick picks
Bassitt over 18.5 outs (+135) : Bassitt has really taken on a bulldog mentality (or perhaps basset hound) in recent outings, breaking past that sixth-inning barrier with regularity.
To cash on this prop, the veteran right-hander will need to earn an out in the seventh inning. He’s done that in four consecutive starts, as well as six of his past seven.
The Twins are batting just .209 over their past eight games and have scored 3.4 runs per game in that span. This looks like a good matchup for Bassitt to go deep again.
Belt 1+ hits (-141) : We’ll probably keep eyeing Belt’s hits prop until he gives us a reason not to.
This month, Belt is batting .357 for the Jays with a shocking 1.004 OPS. He’s recorded a hit in 14 of his past 17 starts, too.
Lopez, a righty, has allowed a .260 BA to lefty hitters in his career (compared to a .219 BA for righties).
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