Partner Content | Blue Jays vs. Tigers prop picks: Javier Baez offers plus value in plus matchup
The Toronto Blue Jays look to pick up their fourth series win in five tries on Sunday afternoon in a road matchup against the Detroit Tigers.
The pregame narrative: We don’t expect Tigers starter Tarik Skubal to make things easy on the Blue Jays, but at least one Toronto hitter should be in decent shape for Sunday’s matchup. Also, Javier Baez’s excellent history against Ross Stripling makes him an interesting play on the prop market.
Here are our top Blue Jays vs. Tigers prop picks for June 12.
Blue Jays vs. Tigers prop picks overview
- George Springer and Javier Baez over 0.5 hits apiece (+125)
- Baez over 0.5 runs (+143)
- Skubal under 5.5 strikeouts (-134)
Blue Jays vs. Tigers prop picks
Best bet: Springer and Baez over 0.5 hits apiece (+125)
Among the things George Springer loves to hit, here are two: fastballs and left-handed pitchers.
Springer, who’s batting .344 against lefties this year, faces a southpaw in Skubal at Comerica Park. Skubal throws his four-seamer and sinker a combined 47.8% of the time, per Baseball Savant.
Read more: Blue Jays vs. Tigers picks
So while Springer will have to navigate some sliders and changeups along the way, the leadoff man is bound to find a fastball or two worth pouncing on (and for him, that means pretty much any in-zone heater). Check out the 32-year-old’s splits against fastballs compared to other pitch types:
| Pitch type | BA | SLG | Run value |
| Fastballs | .308 | .617 | +10 |
| Breaking | .226 | .434 | +1 |
| Offspeed | .269 | .346 | -2 |
As for Baez, the case to bet on him recording a hit is quite simple: He gives Toronto starter Ross Stripling an awfully hard time.
Baez and Stripling have met for eight plate appearances, and the savvy shortstop has recorded a hit in seven of them (87.5%). It’s not always wise to put a ton of stock in individual matchups, because hitters and pitchers can adjust their approaches from one season to the next, but this is too lopsided to ignore.
Key stat: Springer is batting .311 in his past 10 games, with at least one hit in eight of those matchups. Baez has at least one hit in three of his past five games and five of his past 10.
Quick picks
Baez over 0.5 runs (+143): Let’s give Baez a bit more love, shall we? While his first season in Detroit has been rocky, at least statistically, his past week has been strong. Baez has reached base eight times in his past five games, scoring in three of them.
We’ve spoken to the Stripling matchup already — adding that in gives us warranted value here.
Skubal under 5.5 Ks (-134): Skubal has hovered around this line a lot recently, collecting at least five strikeouts in seven consecutive starts (but only clearing the line three times in that span).
We don’t think he’ll get it done against the Blue Jays, who own a 17.4% K-rate over the past two weeks (third-lowest in majors). They also have the lowest chase rate (27.5%) and third-highest contact rate (80.0%) in that span.
Odds as of 11:41 a.m. ET on 06/12/2022.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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