:format(webp)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/sports/sports-betting/2022/06/11/blue-jays-vs-tigers-picks-and-odds-bet-on-torontos-bats-staying-hot/2022-06-CP158390172-Cropped.jpg "Partner Content | Blue Jays vs. Tigers picks and odds: Bet on Toronto’s bats staying hot")
The Toronto Blue Jays enter Saturday’s game riding high off a 10-1 win, and an offensively inept Detroit Tigers team seems unlikely to halt their momentum.
The pregame narrative: Toronto sends Kevin Gausman to the mound in search of a bounce-back outing, after his trademark splitter was rendered ineffective in a season-worst start against the Minnesota Twins. Detroit counters with Beau Brieske, a rookie who’s struggled through most of 2022, but just produced his best start of the campaign against a tough New York Yankees lineup.
Check out our Blue Jays vs. Tigers picks for June 11.
Blue Jays vs. Tigers picks overview
- Blue Jays over 5.5 runs (+120)
- Blue Jays lead after three innings (-127)
- Kevin Gausman over 5.5 strikeouts (-139)
Blue Jays vs. Tigers picks
Best bet: Blue Jays over 5.5 runs (+120)
This is a standard Toronto has been exceeding like clockwork in recent weeks, which makes it appealing at plus money.
The implied probability on this bet (45.5%) appears to seriously undersell the likelihood of Toronto bringing across six or more. That begins with the starter they face, whose splits are a dream for a Blue Jays club built around right-handed power.
| Split | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| LHH vs. Brieske | .164 | .243 | .343 |
| RHH vs. Brieske | .295 | .346 | .611 |
Essentially, right-handed hitters facing Brieske this year have been Mike Trout with a little less patience. That bodes well for the Blue Jays’ offensive core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and Bo Bichette.
Toronto will be helped by the fact Detroit is one of the worst fielding teams in the league. FanGraphs’ UZR-based model has them 24th in the majors with their position players providing -15.4 runs of defensive value.
While the Tigers deserve some credit for a quality bullpen (2.81 ERA), it’s unlikely to be enough to save them from yet another strong day from the Blue Jays lineup.
Read more: How to bet on the Blue Jays
Key stat: The Blue Jays have averaged 7.1 runs per game in their last 15 contests, falling below this line just three times.
Quick picks
Blue Jays to lead after three innings (-127): The Blue Jays are massive favourites on Saturday (-286), but if you’re willing to grab the first third of the game you can get more value. Toronto is especially likely to win the first three innings because Brieske has struggled to get settled facing batters the first time through the order this year while Gausman has thrived.
| Pitcher | Opponents’ AVG | Opponents’ OBP | Opponents’ SLG | ERA |
| Gausman | .260 | .273 | .354 | 2.22 |
| Brieske | .284 | .333 | .627 | 6.61 |
Gausman over 5.5 strikeouts (-139): Gausman is coming off two subpar outings — the last of which might’ve included some pitch-tipping issues — but we like him to right the ship in Detroit. The Tigers strike out 24.8% of the time against right-handed pitchers, and the 31-year-old has averaged 6.6 K’s per game in 2022.
There is a slight risk that whatever haunted the right-hander in his last start persists, but it seems likely that he can hit his season average for strikeouts against a truly woeful lineup.
Odds as of 8:50 a.m. ET on 06/11/2022.
Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.
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