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The Toronto Blue Jays are stuck in their worst losing skid of the season entering tonight’s matchup against the Boston Red Sox.
The pregame narrative: Boston took the first three games of this series, and we like the Red Sox to at least keep things close in the final matchup. Also, even with the excellent Kevin Gausman on the mound tonight, the Sox should put up enough runs to clear their modestly projected total.
Check out our Blue Jays vs. Red Sox picks and odds for May 4.
MLB odds as of 9:55 a.m. ET on 05/04/23.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox picks
Best Bet : Red Sox +1.5 (-125)
The Red Sox have earned multi-run wins in each of their past four games, but we’re willing to give them a run and a half in tonight’s series finale against a scuffling Blue Jays squad.
Toronto has lost four in a row for the first time since last July. And despite sitting above .500 in the standings, the Jays (18-13) have only covered as run line favourites in 12 of 31 games (38.7%).
It doesn’t help our cause that Gausman is on the mound tonight, but even he hasn’t had a great run line track record. The Jays are just 2-4 as run line favourites in his starts this season.
Conversely, the Red Sox are 3-0 as run line underdogs in Brayan Bello’s outings. And Boston has covered with a +1.5-run cushion in eight of its past 10 games.
Yesterday’s pitching matchup between Alek Manoah and Nick Pivetta looked tilted in Toronto’s favour, but that didn’t matter in Boston’s 8-3 win.
It also helps to know that Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen is expected to be available tonight for the first time all series.
Key stat: Boston has covered a +1.5 run line in 24 of 32 games (75.0%) this year.
Quick pick
Red Sox over 3.5 runs (-109) : Gausman has been borderline untouchable in his past two outings, allowing zero runs on nine hits while striking out 24 batters. So why are we taking the over on Boston’s run total?
Let’s just say the Sox deserve some credit, too. Boston has topped this total in 14 of its past 16 games and has averaged 5.75 runs per game this year.
Gausman’s biggest strength is the art of the strikeout, but Boston should be a tough customer in that regard. The Red Sox have the league’s lowest K-rate against righties (18.4%), which gives us confidence that they’ll keep the ball in play and plate some runs.
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