Partner Content | Blue Jays vs. Rays picks and odds: Jose Berrios should succeed against slumping Tampa

After a frustrating series split in Philly, the Toronto Blue Jays begin a critical four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.

The pregame narrative: This is the last series between Toronto and Tampa this season, and wild card seeding is at stake. The Blue Jays (No. 1 wild card) took three of five games against the Rays (No. 2 wild card) last week.

Check out our Blue Jays vs. Rays picks for September 22.

Odds as of 9:12 a.m. on 09/22/2022.

Blue Jays vs. Rays picks

Best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-124)

For as much as Jose Berrios has struggled this season, it looks like he might be peaking at the right time.

In his past three outings — all against AL East foes — Berrios has a trio of quality starts and a 2.45 ERA. Most importantly, Toronto has won all three of those games.

Dating back to August 18, Berrios has pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in six consecutive outings. His season-long numbers are still a bit unsightly, but this recent run has been quite encouraging.

The Blue Jays are 22-7 when Berrios starts this season, which doesn’t make perfect sense when you consider his 78 ERA+. But Toronto’s 6-0 record over his last six starts has a strong correlation to Berrios’ individual success on the mound.

Opposite Berrios, the Rays counter with a JT Chargois/Ryan Yarbrough combo. Chargois will likely go an inning or two, giving way to Yarbrough in bulk relief.

Yarbrough has seen this current Blue Jays lineup more than almost any other pitcher, and the results haven’t been great. The soft-throwing lefty has allowed a .493 slugging percentage over 203 cumulative at-bats.

Key stat: The Blue Jays have won both of Berrios’ starts against the Rays this season, and the right-hander has allowed just three earned runs over 11.1 innings (2.38 ERA) in that span.

Quick picks

Under 7.5 runs (-106): This is a pretty low number, but the resurgence of Berrios and the recent sluggishness of the Rays’ offence has us eyeing the under. The Rays have only scored two runs over their past 29 innings, and they’ve scored only four runs across a pair of Berrios starts earlier this season.

Toronto and Tampa have combined for under 7.5 runs in nine of their 17 matchups this year.

Under 0.5 runs, first inning (-134): The juice on this line makes it less enticing, naturally, but we have a decent trend to back it up. Berrios hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in any of his past nine starts, while Chargois has pitched a scoreless first inning in both appearances as an opener this season.

Chargois has also held the current Blue Jays lineup to a .192 batting average in 26 at-bats.

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