Partner Content | Blue Jays vs. Rays picks and odds: Back Toronto behind Manoah

After losing the first two games of their series with the Tampa Bay Rays, the Toronto Blue Jays need a win on Saturday to avoid falling behind their AL East rival.

The pregame narrative: The Blue Jays hope a strong start from Alek Manoah will stop the bleeding, but the Rays have a front-of-the-rotation starter to counter with as Drew Rasmussen takes the hill.

Check out our Blue Jays vs. Rays picks for September 24.

Odds as of 9:42 a.m. on 09/24/2022.

Blue Jays vs. Rays picks

Best bet: Blue Jays ML (-103)

Calling for a Blue Jays win with Manoah on the hill isn’t outside-the-box thinking, but the value at these odds is too enticing to ignore.

The big right-hander has been rolling lately with a 1.28 ERA in September, and he’s consistently found success against the Rays. Current Tampa Bay hitters have a .136 batting average against him with almost no power (.235 SLG) in 90 plate appearances.

Those numbers are supported by equally strong expected statistics too as Manoah’s xAVG and xSLG allowed against these hitters are .168 and .229 respectively.

Rays starter Drew Rasmussen is in the midst of an excellent season, but Toronto torched him for four earned runs in four innings when they met on September 13.

He has excellent overall numbers against Blue Jays hitters, but his strikeout rate is low (15.3%) and his xAVG allowed is high (.270).

Rasmussen will still be a tough test for the Blue Jays, but Manoah should make things even harder on Tampa Bay. Considering the big starter has pitched into the seventh in four of his last five starts, it seems likely his performance will have an outsized effect on this game.

Key stat: The Blue Jays are 4-2 in games against the Rays started by Manoah over the last two seasons, allowing more than three runs just once.

Quick picks

Blue Jays over 3.5 runs (+117): There is no doubt that Rasmussen is an imposing opponent, but this line is too low for Toronto’s offence. The Blue Jays have scored at least four runs in eight of their last 10 games, including both matchups with the Rays in this series.

Based on the way Toronto handled Rasmussen last time they saw him — and the club’s success against Tampa Bay’s bullpen in this series so far, four runs doesn’t seem like a daunting total.

Blue Jays first to 3 runs (+102): This is a slightly different flavour hitting a similar idea. Because Toronto looks to have an early-game pitching edge behind Manoah, it’s likely the team will get an early lead.

Getting to bat first will also help in that pursuit.

Three runs is a good number to target because you can grab it at positive odds, and there’s a decent chance Tampa Bay doesn’t reach three runs at all. The Blue Jays have conceded fewer than three runs in four of Manoah’s last five starts.

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