Partner Content | Blue Jays vs. Pirates picks and odds: Fade Toronto on its bullpen day

The Toronto Blue Jays and Pittsburgh Pirates continue their three-game series at PNC Park on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto took Game 1 in 4-0 fashion, and now the Blue Jays will work through a bullpen game while the Pirates send rookie Roansy Contreras to the mound.

Check out our Blue Jays vs. Pirates picks for September 3.

Odds as of 8:53 a.m. on 09/03/2022.

Blue Jays vs. Pirates picks

Best bet: Pirates +1.5 (-122)

We don’t know exactly how the Blue Jays will navigate their bullpen game tonight, and that uncertainty gives us pause about backing the road team.

Trevor Richards, a former starter who hasn’t filled that role since 2020, will serve as Toronto’s opener. It’s anybody’s guess from there, although Yusei Kikuchi (5.36 ERA) and Casey Lawrence (8.04 ERA) are the most logical bulk options based on how many days it’s been since they’ve pitched.

Kikuchi — who was banished to the bullpen a few weeks ago — tossed six pitches last Sunday. He has allowed four runs in five relief innings so far.

Lawrence — who was recalled from Triple-A when rosters expanded — threw just two innings in the minors on August 30. In his most recent MLB outing, the 34-year-old coughed up five runs over 2.2 frames.

Neither bulk candidate gives us much to be excited about. Pittsburgh’s lifeless offence has just one run over its past two games, but this seems like as good of a time as any to wake up.

Also, Contreras is coming off five shutout innings against the Phillies last time out. The 22-year-old has had some blowups, but he’s allowed two or fewer runs in five of his past seven starts.

Key stat: The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their past nine games.

Quick picks

Over 8 runs (-106): Yes, the Pirates’ offence has been terrible in recent games (and throughout the year, really). But seeing some combination of Richards/Kikuchi/Lawrence should help. That trio has been worth -1.3 fWAR this year, with a 5.35 ERA and 5.61 FIP.

And although Contreras has put together some decent outings lately, there are plenty of underlying stats to worry about. Per Baseball Savant, Contreras ranks in the bottom 15% in average exit velocity, walk rate, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, expected wOBA and expected SLG.

Read more: Blue Jays betting trends