Partner Content | Blue Jays vs. Orioles Game 2 picks and odds: Pitching edge should help O’s in doubleheader

Baseball fans get twice the action at Camden Yards on Monday, as the Blue Jays and Orioles meet for Game 2 of their doubleheader this afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Toronto entered the day with a 2.5-game lead on the Orioles for the final wild-card spot. After today, these teams will still face each other eight more times in the regular season, so anything can happen.

Check out our Blue Jays vs. Orioles Game 2 picks for September 5.

Odds as of 12:03 p.m. on 09/05/2022.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Game 2 picks

Best bet: Orioles moneyline – Berrios and Lyles must start (+116)

You could certainly argue that the Blue Jays had the starting pitching edge in Game 1, but the opposite is true for the second matchup.

On one side we have Jose Berrios, whose up-and-down season has been mostly down — especially of late. Just look at what August had in store for him:

That’s some rough stuff. And sure, Berrios has solid history against the current Orioles lineup (.271 wOBA allowed, per Baseball Savant), but that’s over just 63 plate appearances. His August sample size (116 plate appearances) was almost double that.

Jordan Lyles has won both his starts against the Blue Jays this season, albeit with a mediocre six runs allowed over 11 innings. We’re more interested in his recent work, which includes a 2.72 ERA over his past seven starts.

The reason we opted for the “Berrios and Lyles must start” market is because of Lyles’ health. He didn’t feel well this morning, which is why he didn’t start Game 1 of the twin bill.

If Lyles doesn’t start, the bet is voided.

If the game is close in the late innings, we believe the Orioles’ bullpen has the edge.

Two of Toronto’s best leverage arms — Jordan Romano and Anthony Bass — enter the doubleheader having pitched on consecutive days. As for the O’s, closer Felix Bautista and their other main relievers are fresh.

Key stat: The Orioles have won Lyles’ past six home starts, including a 7-4 win over Toronto on August 8.

Quick picks

Under 8.5 runs (-114): The Orioles have fallen under this mark in 13 of their past 14 games, which is the type of trend you really don’t see very often. And although these teams have hit the over in most of their meetings this year, they’ve gone under in the past two matchups.

We don’t want the speculate about lineup decisions for the back end of a doubleheader, but if any notable hitters are given a chance to rest that only strengthens our case further.

Orioles to score first and win (+270): This is always a tougher ask for the home side, which has to survive the top of the first inning to even have a chance at cashing.

But Lyles has held the Jays scoreless through the first two innings of both of his starts against them in 2022, so we hope he’ll give his squad a chance again.

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