Partner Content | Blue Jays vs. Guardians prop picks: Kevin Gausman brings plus value to strikeout prop

Two of the American League’s top starters, Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber, do battle on Friday night as the Toronto Blue Jays face the Cleveland Guardians.

The pregame narrative: Fans at Progressive Field should be in for a pitchers’ duel, given how Gausman and Bieber have performed this year. Neither pitcher has allowed more than three runs in a start, and they both boast sub-2.50 ERAs. It’s safe to say hitters will have their hands full in this one.

Check out our Blue Jays vs. Guardians prop picks for May 6.

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Blue Jays vs. Guardians prop picks overview

Blue Jays vs. Guardians prop picks

Best bet: Gausman over 6.5 Ks (+105)

With 41 strikeouts through five starts and a four-game streak of clearing this total, it’s easy to love this prop.

Read more: Blue Jays vs. Guardians betting picks May 6

The Guardians don’t appear to be too accommodating for strikeout props, given their league-leading contact rate (80.5%) and their seventh-ranked K-rate (20.5%). But a closer look suggests that Gausman can be just the pitcher to pile up Ks against them.

What we learn from these numbers is that Cleveland has been collectively selective at the plate. Guardians hitters have done well to limit swings and misses, but they are also not swinging much on the whole.

They rank 22nd in MLB with an 8.2% walk rate. So a pitcher who fills the strike zone with nasty stuff — thus getting ahead in the count on this patient lineup — should still find success.

And that’s exactly what Gausman does. He leads the majors in strike percentage (74.8%) while wielding a 92nd-percentile whiff rate. All three of his off-speed/breaking pitches have garnered a whiff rate greater than 50%, which is a credit to a fastball with above-average spin and velocity.

Key stat: When he’s not throwing strikes, Gausman has coaxed hitters to chase on 53.9% of his out-of-zone pitches. That chase rate leads all MLB pitchers.

Quick picks

Bieber under 2.5 earned runs (-128): The Blue Jays have scored fewer than three runs off eight of the past 10 starters they’ve seen, and very few of those are as imposing as Bieber. The 2020 Cy Young winner has a 3.06 FIP in five starts this season and ranks 10th among AL pitchers in fWAR (0.6).

Dating back to last season, Bieber has allowed under 2.5 earned runs in eight of his past 11 outings.

Reyes under 0.5 bases (-120): Reyes has woken up in May, collecting six hits in his first three games that followed an icy 5-for-55 slump. Still, this is decent value for a guy who leads the majors in punchouts (40) and is facing a high-strikeout pitcher in Gausman.

Odds courtesy of Sportingbet as of 11:15 a.m. ET on 05/06/2022. 

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