Partner Content | Best early NFL Week 17 picks: Back Washington at home

Washington has not been playing inspiring football in the last few weeks, but they are perfectly suited to take on their Week 17 opponent.

Ever since the Browns turned to Deshaun Watson at quarterback their passing game has been extremely limited. The rusty quarterback has topped 161 passing yards just once in his four starts.

That means Cleveland will have to move the ball on the ground to put up points in this one, and that will be tough against a Commanders defence that ranks fourth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA.

Washington’s pass defence should also be better than its season-long statistics suggest as top pass rusher Chase Young returned to the team in Week 16.

When the Commanders have the ball, they’ll have the pleasure of working against a defence that ranks 26th in total DVOA. The Browns are especially vulnerable to the run, which should suit Washington fine as running back Brian Robinson has come on strong in recent weeks with 87 yards per game in his last four.

Key stat: The Browns have 3 offensive touchdowns in four games since Watson took over at quarterback.

Quick picks

49ers -6 (-108): Down to their third quarterback, the 49ers haven’t missed a beat. This team has won eight games in a row by a combined margin of 133 points. None of those victories came by less than six points, and we don’t see the Las Vegas Raiders as the team to break the pattern.

This isn’t a long road trip for San Francisco and they’ll face off with a team that lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Rams recently and got its only win in the last three weeks via a Jakobi Meyers miracle.

Panthers ML (+150): Carolina was one of Week 16’s most impressive teams as the Panthers blew out the surging Detriot Lions and got one step closer to an improbable NFC South title.

Since Sam Darnold took over this team is 3-1 with 26.5 points scored per game. Suddenly the Panthers’ offence has some bite. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on the other hand, have scored more than 23 points just once this season and just looked brutal in an overtime win over the lowly Arizona Cardinals.

Carolina already bested Tampa Bay 21-3 this season, and another upset doesn’t sound like too much to ask.

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